If you’ve been following along the past few weeks, you already know I’ve been watching one level like a hawk: the April 2 “Liberation Gap.”
I said it might get tested by the end of April—even when people told me I was nuts for suggesting it after the market dipped hard last week.
And while we’re not quite there yet… something big is brewing.
We’re back knocking on the door of the $548 level on SPY—a price that marked two key support points back in March before we cracked below it. It’s also the exact level we tagged on April 9 during the so-called “Tariff Pause” candle. Remember that one? I called it a no man’s land… and it’s still acting like it.
Now, could we get a test of $548 in the next 30 hours before the week closes? I think it’s very possible.
So what’s the move?
This is the part where some folks start asking: “Is it time to go all-in on bullish trades?”
For me, not quite.
Yes, I’m leaning bullish in certain setups — but I’m still not committing to medium-term options right now. This is still a very headline-driven market, and that means things can shift fast. One tweet, one leak, one unexpected data point… and boom — sentiment flips.
Even worse, we’re seeing the average true range (ATR) begin to fall. That means the expected size of market moves is shrinking — and when that happens, long-dated options get crushed.
Why? Because those longer-dated options were priced when volatility was high. So even if you guess the right direction, they can lose value just from the market calming down. No thanks.
That’s why I’m keeping things short and focused. I’m mainly trading spreads right now — which help reduce exposure to volatility — and I’m using a few of my favorite earnings strategies while we’re in the thick of it.
👉 One approach is using directional debit spreads to catch expected moves and potentially double your money.
👉 Another is a stacked play where I run a bullish and bearish setup simultaneously. Only one has to win.
👉 And then there’s the “boring” one — selling calls to collect premium, especially in flat or drifting markets.
Bottom line: I’m not sitting this out. I’m just being selective and smart with trade structure. This is the time to trade tactically — not emotionally.
And speaking of timing…
👀 I’ve got a BIG surprise for everyone joining Opening Playbook LIVE at 10AM ET today.
But you’ve got to be there to see it.
UPDATE: The replay is available here
See you at 10,
— Nate Tucci
