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Lance is jumping on this morning to talk about that wild NVDA run. He’s also giving K.I.R.A away to everyone who shows up, so you’ll have the tech to try for yourself [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]!
I’ve been tracking momentum signals for years and when I see setups with this kind of historical backing, I pay attention…
Both Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) triggered brand-new Apex Software signals on Friday while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded essentially flat. Even in that environment, NVDA managed a slight gain while AMD pulled back about 3.5%, giving us a clean read on relative strength versus weakness.
Before diving deeper into these two setups, it helps to understand exactly what my Apex system is measuring.
Apex is a weekly momentum price action indicator that evaluates trend acceleration across several inputs: weekly price structure, volume confirmation and volatility compression. A signal fires when all three conditions align.
A win is defined as the underlying reaching the model’s target within the standard holding window, which historically averages eight to twelve trading days. Results are measured on a close-to-close basis for stock performance and on position settlement for options.
Across the last six years — covering 2018 through 2023 and including the 2022 bear market — NVDA has generated 31 Apex signals. AMD has produced 27. All results include post-split price adjustments, dividend neutrality and survivorship handling to keep the backtest clean and comparable over time.
NVDA’s signals have won 84% of the time and AMD’s 78%.
Why Nvidia Stands Out Right Now
NVDA’s newest signal is especially interesting because it arrives after a quiet period with very few triggers and those stretches often precede meaningful momentum expansions. Historically, NVDA’s Apex signals have averaged a 5% gain on the underlying stock during the model’s standard holding period.
For traders using options, the range of outcomes widens based on approach. A wrap order targeting the model’s base exit level typically returns near 100%, while a max-ROI spread has historically reached between 150% and 200% depending on expiration selection, implied volatility at entry and proximity to the target level.
These numbers vary with strike choice, time to expiration and slippage, so I treat them as directional guides rather than guarantees.
As for timing risk, I checked NVDA’s earnings calendar on March 22 and confirmed that no earnings fall within the model’s standard holding window. That removes a major catalyst that can distort or invalidate a momentum setup prematurely.
There are currently eight active Apex signals in the system. Active means the signal has fired and remains within its holding window — neither reaching the target nor hitting the system’s invalidation level.
NVDA stands out as one of the cleanest among them.
AMD’s Setup and How It Compares
AMD’s signal is strong in its own right. The last two AMD Apex signals hit their profit targets and the long-term stats remain steady. Even with the recent 3.5% pullback, AMD enters the year with solid momentum though it’s currently the more volatile of the two.
Here’s how the two stack up right now:
NVDA: Fewer signals recently, stronger relative strength, tighter volatility profile, no earnings in the holding window and higher historical win rate.
AMD: More recent signal activity, slightly lower historical win rate, wider implied volatility and a sharper pullback that may offer more room but also brings more risk.
This difference is why I’d prioritize NVDA at the moment though I’m watching both closely. And because even the best momentum indicators can fail, I always anchor each setup to an invalidation level — typically where price breaks the structure that triggered the signal. If that happens, I’m out.
The historical consistency is what makes these signals worth following but the discipline to exit when the setup breaks is what keeps the stats meaningful.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. My No. 1 Daily setup and What Happens When You Hold Till the CloseÂ
I’ve been showing everyone how to target 50% a day in less than an hour…
Every morning using my No. 1 daily setup.
However, if you hold the same trade until the close, that 50% target quickly transforms into what could be a 100% payout!
