It looked like we were headed for a neutral open, but as the day has progressed, stocks have quietly moved into the green.
The market isn’t making any dramatic moves yet, but there’s definitely a slight optimistic feeling as traders position ahead of the big event: the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
All Eyes on Powell—And What Comes Next
At this point, nobody expects the Fed to change rates today—that part is already priced in. The real focus? What Powell says next.
Investors want a clearer picture of where interest rates are headed in the coming months, especially with stagflation concerns creeping back into the conversation. If Powell signals that rate cuts might be further away than expected, that could put pressure on the market.
On the flip side, if he sounds even slightly more dovish, stocks could rip higher.
Beyond the Fed itself, markets are also watching how Trump’s economic policies and Elon Musk’s DOGE-led government-shrinking initiatives could influence the Fed’s outlook. It’s an unusual mix of factors, but in this market, nothing is ever simple.
This 2:00 PM ET press conference could be the moment that shakes things up. We’ve seen plenty of Fed days where stocks look calm at first, only to make massive moves once Powell starts speaking.
I think (because of the mix of factors mentioned above) Powell has a lot of power today…
He could say something crazy like “Despite President Trump’s push to increase costs, the Fed is dedicated to easing the burden for Americans!” and try to win himself some legacy…
More likely, he will play nice and neutral…
But what if he says that he and the administration are totally aligned and we need to be prepared for some short term pain for longer term wins? Look out below.
Again, most likely, the extreme scenarios don’t happen today…
But you have to ask yourself the “what if” question right now. And there’s so much potential in both directions.
That’s exactly why I’m so excited about our LIVE Roundtable today. We’ll be breaking it all down in real time and watching for opportunities as they unfold.
And on top of that, I’ve got some shocking data to share that you won’t want to miss.
So buckle up—it’s shaping up to be an action-packed session, and we could be in for a big move in either direction.
— Nate Tucci
