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I believe I’ve isolated a daily pattern that operates completely away from Wall Street noise, and I’ll be on at 5 p.m. ET today to show you how to get in on Monday’s trade early [tap to join us]!
There’s a shift happening in gold right now, and it’s the first real warning signal we’ve seen after an impressive extended rally. If you’ve been riding this wave higher, it’s time to pay attention.
Gold tends to form head and shoulders patterns when it tops out, and that’s what could be developing here. The pattern isn’t confirmed, but the setup is present. A continued decline could produce a five-wave move down followed by a three-wave bounce. In Elliott Wave analysis, five waves in the direction of the new trend and a corrective three-wave rebound can signal that a larger reversal is underway. That sequence would increase the risk of a deeper dip rather than a routine pause.
What’s particularly concerning is the price action off the lows — very sloppy and choppy compared with the clean uptrend we enjoyed for months. Overlapping swings and inconsistent follow-through suggest buyers and sellers are fighting for control. That uncertainty often brings greater volatility and raises the odds of false breakouts. Gold also moved beyond its extensions without a meaningful retrace, leaving it vulnerable to at least a pullback.
The Critical Level That Changes Everything
If gold breaks back below the $4,180 area on a retrace, we’re probably heading beneath the low set in June. That’s the line in the sand. Above it, gold could simply be consolidating before another leg higher. Below it, the five-wave decline and three-wave rebound would become more compelling, while the potential head and shoulders top would carry greater weight.
At minimum, expect a retrace. The question is whether it becomes something bigger — a genuine reversal after an extended run.
Why Silver Looks Stronger
Silver, on the other hand, made a much more bullish move. Its structure is cleaner, its extensions are healthier and its price action shows better directional follow-through. Unlike gold’s overlapping rebound, silver’s advance looks more impulsive. That distinction tips the odds toward another move higher and suggests silver could outperform gold in the short term.
The key level for silver is $61.30. As long as it stays above that level, I’m looking for a retrace similar in size to the previous correction followed by another push higher. Holding support while completing an orderly pullback would reinforce the bullish structure.
If silver breaks below $61.30, however, that would set the stage for a move back into the $50s. The divergence between the metals is notable: gold is showing uncertainty while silver is displaying cleaner momentum. That could reflect internal rotation within precious metals or silver playing catch-up as gold’s extended rally loses steam.
Either way, remain cautious with gold. This is the first legitimate topping setup we’ve seen in months, and ignoring it would be a mistake.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Is There a Less Stressful Way to Play This Market Than Guessing Index Highs?Â
With the S&P 500 pushing historic valuation territory…
Broad market whipsaws are getting brutal for everyday traders.
I believe I’ve isolated a daily pattern that operates completely away from Wall Street noise, and I’m going live today at 5 p.m. ET to show you how to get in on Monday’s trade early.
