🚨 I’ll be live at 10 a.m. ET with Graham Lindman🚨
We’ll talk about allocation and position sizing, a tool you can use that doesn’t cost a thing and more [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
I keep seeing the same question everywhere…
Is the market bullish or bearish?
Honestly, that’s the wrong question.
The market isn’t really bullish or bearish right now — it’s neutral to bullish at best. What has to happen for us to break out of this holding pattern is simple: More days where Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight ETF (RSP) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are both up and working together.
That kind of alignment is what it’s going to take for the market to actually build structure instead of drifting in place.
We haven’t been able to build true bullish structure because the market keeps trading in rotations. One day it’s Energy (XLE). The next day it’s Utilities (XLU). Then Technology (XLK) gets hammered while the “old economy” sectors pop.
It’s exhausting — and more importantly, it’s not sustainable for a real breakout.
So what does the market actually need?
Breadth Over Direction
Here’s what most traders miss: We need days where RSP and QQQ work together, not one at the expense of the other.
When both are up on the same day, that’s when you start to see real market structure forming. That’s when breadth shows up.
Breadth is what builds sustained moves — not just a pop here and a fade there.
When you look across the sectors on days like that, you can see it clearly. Lots of green and evenly contributed green.
That kind of participation can’t be faked. It’s the backbone of any market that wants to do more than chop sideways.
Recently, we saw one of those days — and it stood out.
There was broad participation, not just a handful of mega-caps dragging the index higher while everything else bled out.
Financials (XLF) actually turned around and had an up day, which was a surprise. More importantly, Consumer Staples (XLP) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were both up at the same time.
That doesn’t happen often. One is defensive, the other is cyclical. When they both rally, it tells you something about the breadth underneath the surface.
Why This Matters for Your Trading
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for confirmation, this kind of day is what we need to build bullish structure and get a breakout to the upside.
It’s not about predicting the next 5% move. It’s about recognizing when the market is laying the foundation for one.
If you’re trading directionally or defensively, the assets that matter most right now are QQQ, XLK, Communications (XLC) and XLY.
Those areas will tell you whether the market is building pressure or bleeding it off. When they move in sync with the broader market, that’s when opportunities start to appear.
Right now, the market hasn’t given us that foundation. We’ve had pockets of strength, but we’ve been stuck in a back-and-forth pattern where sectors trade blows instead of moving together.
If you’re frustrated by the chop, you’re not alone. The market hasn’t committed to a structure yet.
But when it does — when you see those broad, evenly distributed up days — that’s your signal. That’s when the probabilities start to shift in your favor.
Until then, stay patient. Stay selective. Watch for breadth, not just direction.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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