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We’re breaking down the critical difference between trading market volatility versus purely trading directional movement for today’s Opening Playbook. Join us live to see exactly how we are adjusting our strategy to capture the best setups [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
You know what’s fascinating about markets?
They don’t just move up or down. They change how they move up or down — and most traders completely miss it.
I’ve been tracking something lately that’s a perfect example of this. We just went through one of the most interesting momentum regime shifts I’ve seen in a while, and it completely changed how you should have been trading.
Let me walk you through it.
April–May: The Quiet Bull Market
Back in April and May, even though the market moved up quickly, we were actually in a much more neutral momentum environment.
That might sound contradictory, but here’s what I mean.
Even on big bullish days during that period, the overnight sessions were quieter. The market would settle in overnight, and then we’d figure out during trading hours how much juice we were going to get.
Most of the action was happening intraday, not overnight.
In a bullish, neutral momentum regime like that, the best strategy is to stay flexible during the trading day.
You’re not dealing with runaway moves, so mean reversion plays, tight intraday rotations and reactive setups thrive.
You can wake up, read the levels and make decisions with far more control because the bulk of the move is happening while you’re awake to manage it.
But then June showed up…
June: The Volatility Shift
In June, we got a distinct volatility shift where the market moved into high-to-medium momentum that stuck around for several weeks. This was a real change of pace.
Suddenly, we started seeing much bigger overnight moves. The market wasn’t waiting for the trading day to decide what it wanted to do — it was gapping and running before most people even had their coffee.
What made this shift so unusual was that it happened while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) stayed under 20 almost the entire time.
Historically, when we see sustained momentum paired with bigger overnight moves, the VIX tends to reflect that stress. Not this time.
We’ve only seen similar behavior a few times, and those periods often left traders confused because the surface-level volatility metrics didn’t match what the market was actually doing.
That disconnect usually means one thing — traders relying on old volatility cues get blindsided. When the VIX stays soft during a momentum expansion, the market can move further and faster than people expect because positioning doesn’t adjust quickly enough.
In an environment like this, your strategy can’t be intraday-reactive anymore. You have to be positioned before the close because the market is doing half the work while you’re asleep.
Swing entries, continuation setups and holding through overnight risk become essential tools. Ignoring that shift means waking up on the wrong side of gaps that you never had the chance to manage.
Daily market structure becomes even more important. Before each session, you have to assess whether the market is likely to trend or revert to the mean. In high-momentum stretches, the odds lean toward continuation, so you favor breakout and follow-through setups.
In neutral stretches, where ranges tighten and ATR shrinks, mean reversion takes over and fading extremes becomes more profitable. Recognizing which type of day you’re walking into is one of the highest-value skills you can build.
And now? We’re back to seeing some neutral momentum days again — something we hadn’t experienced much after those weeks of sustained high-to-medium momentum. When that happens, the playbook shifts again.
You tighten risk, shorten your hold times and let the market come to you instead of chasing moves that no longer have the same follow-through.
The lesson here isn’t just about April, May and June.
It’s about recognizing when the market’s personality changes. Same general direction, totally different rhythm.
Miss that shift, and your trade structure is fighting against the environment instead of working with it.
Pay attention to how the market is moving, not just where it’s going. That’s where the edge is.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
