No Crystal Ball Needed: Here’s What I’m Watching for a Real Market Bottom
I’ll be honest — I thought we’d see a quick intraday shakeout of weak hands yesterday… but I definitely didn’t expect to give that much back.
Wednesday’s move was massive, yes — but it was based on real news and came early enough in the day to let the market “shake and bake” into a solid finish. We even closed on the highs, which was a big deal.
So to turn around and fade that hard the next day when the market had all day on Wednesday to normalize? Definitely caught me off guard.
But maybe that’s the real lesson here: no one is going to time this market perfectly right now. And if you know someone who claims they can, let me know — I have a few questions 😂
In all seriousness though, this is the kind of tape that punishes prediction. Trying to bottom-pick or call the next “turn” is a losing game in my opinion. I’m not interested in pretending I know when this ends.
What I am interested in is spotting when the conditions for a bottom are being created — and that comes down to one thing: liquidity.
Watching the Real Trigger for a Turn
I’ve said it before, but it’s worth repeating: the bottom won’t come from a headline or even from valuations looking “cheap.” It’s going to come when real liquidity enters the market.
Unfortunately (well, hopefully fortunately in the long run), that liquidity isn’t coming from the Fed pumping trillions of stimulus money into the market.
So the best signal for liquidity stepping in and setting a hard bottom? Insider buying.
When corporate insiders — the people who know their businesses inside and out — start stepping in and buying shares with their own money, that’s a real tell. It’s not sentiment. It’s not speculation. It’s skin in the game.
Right now, we’re still not seeing that flow in size. Yes, we’re getting some dark pool activity showing more bullish leanings on the big names (minus small caps), and we’ve had some late-day pops like yesterday’s 2% surge on the QQQ. But volume? Still light. That’s not what a real bottom looks like — at least not yet.
The Smarter Plays Right Now
That’s why I keep pounding the table on pairs trades and tactical setups. Instead of trying to pick which way the whole market goes, I’m using the volatility to my advantage by going long the strong and short the weak.
I’d much rather take a relative strength edge than try to bet on macro direction. And when you’re in a market where a “small” move is now 2%… you can’t afford to guess wrong too many times.
Even Bitcoin — which I’m not fully convinced is a true store of value yet — is showing more resilience than the indexes. That says a lot about where traditional money flow is right now.
By the way, when liquidity does step in, I think the people who “survived” the beating and are ready to capitalize are going to have the best opportunities (just like they did in 2002, 2009, 2020).
And that’s why the other plays I keep reminding you about are systematic in nature. Not trying to shift the strategy based on news, but instead, using a mathematical edge that we believe in over time. “Keep swinging the bat” as you will hear me say ad nauseam. But only because it works.
And today, I will be swinging the bat on one of my absolute favorite strategies. I will trade it live with members too!
Just be sure to check out today’s free trade room with Graham and I, then join my members only session for this week’s opportunity.
Speaking of which — big shift in the schedule!
Instead of the usual “Mapping the Market” session, I’m now going LIVE with Graham every weekday at 10 AM ET for The Opening Playbook.
We’re walking through:
- What we’re seeing in the market each day
- Real money trading
- Q&A, live setups, and more
So mark your calendar.
And let’s keep navigating this crazy market — together.
— Nate Tucci
