🚨I’ll be live at 10 a.m. ET with Graham🚨
We’ll do a quick session on where things stand currently after a big night down in Asia and markets looking red ahead of the open, my No. 1 volatility trade and more [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
Some trading days are easy to read. Big momentum. Clear direction. You know where you stand.
And then there are days like the one I walked through recently — where the market gives you absolutely nothing.
No real gap. Low momentum through the first 15 minutes. VIX sitting around 19 — not screaming fear, not signaling calm. Just normal.
We’re also in a mixed trend, which means the market has been pulling back after a bullish run, so it’s not decisively up or down. It’s probing, testing levels, moving without conviction.
And even within that chop, individual names behave differently. We saw some stocks get hit harder while others held up surprisingly well.
One example: A large space-related stock was down a bit but still holding up better than the rest of its group. These kinds of divergences are common in mixed conditions and can offer helpful clues about underlying strength or weakness.
This is what I call a mixed neutral low environment — and it’s one of the hardest to trade.
But even when the market is messy, there’s still a framework you can use. You just have to know what you’re looking at.
What History Tells Us About These Days
When I see a setup like this — mixed trend, neutral gap, low momentum and normal volatility — I immediately go back to the data.
Over the last 20 years, only 196 sessions match this exact profile. That rarity alone tells you something: The market doesn’t often sit in this exact blend of indecision. When it does, it’s usually in transition, feeling for a direction rather than committing to one.
Historically, only 37% of these days moved higher from 9:45 a.m. ET through the close, which gives a slight bearish lean. But the real story is the symmetry. Up days gain about 0.5%, while down days lose around 0.57%. Neither side dominates.
And the intraday action? Expect roughly a 1% move in either direction between 9:45 a.m. and the close — regardless of how the day ends.
That’s classic chop.
Add to that the time of year. July often marks a low in the market, and a small pullback here wouldn’t be unusual.
When seasonality lines up with a mixed environment like this, it often means the market is resetting, shaking out excess before making its next meaningful move.
The Levels I’d Watch But Wouldn’t Trade
If you absolutely had to trade this kind of day — and I’m not saying you should — here’s how I’d think about it.
The S&P 500 (SPY) was probing between roughly $732 and $739. That’s your range.
If we dipped to around $731-$732, I’d expect a drift higher. If we pushed up to $738-$739, I’d expect a drift lower.
But I still wouldn’t recommend trading in a fully mixed environment like this. The edge is thin, the noise is loud and the market simply hasn’t picked a side.
The better play is patience. Manage existing positions. Adjust risk. Wait for clarity.
Because it’s hard to get directional while we’re stuck in a mixed state — and forcing trades in these conditions is how gains disappear.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
