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I’ve been mapping out the market structure for the past several days, and what I’m seeing right now is one of those rare setups where everything’s compressed — waiting to release in one direction or the other.
It’s what I call a spring-loaded market. And if you understand what’s happening technically, you’ll know exactly what to watch for next.
We’re sitting inside an ascending triangle pattern — one of the clearest I’ve seen in months.
Here’s how the pattern works: We’ve seen multiple touches at the top, creating resistance at all-time highs. At the same time, the 50-day moving average (MA) has been rising and serving as support. That creates a tightening range — a coil.
When you see this kind of compression, it means energy’s building. The market’s deciding. And when it breaks, it tends to move fast. That speed can be tempting, especially with intraday swings that sometimes offer 3% of range.
It’s easy to feel the urge to jump in just because the volatility’s loud, but that’s exactly when discipline matters most. The goal’s to avoid clicking buttons simply because the market feels exciting.
2 Scenarios — Both Decisive
If we break above all-time highs and close there, that’s bullish. Really bullish. That coil can go fast to the upside once resistance gives way. It would signal the next leg higher is underway.
But if we break the other direction — below the 50-day MA — that’s a different story entirely. That’s what I call the “McDonald’s M for murder” pattern, which typically means a big drop.
I’m not trying to predict which way it goes. I’m just watching the levels. The market will tell us. It always does.
And it’s worth remembering that bounces off these averages don’t guarantee safety. There have been stretches where the market tapped the 50-day MA or even the 100-day, looked fine for multiple days, even produced big bounces — only to roll over afterward.
Those moments teach you that support holds until it doesn’t and relying solely on the first bounce can lead you into trouble.
Right now, there’s also a broader backdrop forming. Interest rate pressures are easing, energy prices have been cooling off and several macro stress points are calming. That shift tends to support risk assets and can help fuel momentum in areas like AI, which is already positioned for another competitive surge.
These macro tailwinds don’t decide the breakout but they do shape what happens if the breakout’s to the upside.
What I’m Watching Now
Early on, I think we’re going to bounce from the 50-day MA. This is typically a strong support zone. Whether that will lead to all-time highs again or not, I don’t know yet.
But here’s what I do know: We really need to wait for a break one side or the other. That’s the only way this gets resolved cleanly.
So instead of trying to guess direction or force trades in a choppy range, I’m waiting. I’m letting the market come to me. And when it does break — whether that’s up through resistance or down through support — I’ll have a much clearer picture of what comes next.
Right now, patience wins. The setup’s there. The levels are clear. The volatility’s tempting but that doesn’t make it a signal. We just need the market to show its hand.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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