🚨 I’ll be live at 10 a.m. ET with Graham Lindman🚨
We’ll take a look at stocks that have bottomed in mid-March over the past 20 years, why the Mag 7 premium is gone, three BIG earnings reports this week and more [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
You ever notice how market panic feels like it’s going to last forever — until suddenly it doesn’t?
That’s the thing about volatility. It spikes fast, grabs headlines and dominates the conversation. But then, quietly, it starts to fade even before the news improves.
Markets have done this for decades. Whether it’s a geopolitical shock, a health crisis or a sudden correction, the initial fear hits hard and then quickly becomes the new normal.
That’s exactly what I’m positioning for right now with my VIX shorts targeting below 25 by May expiration.
Here’s the setup: I’m short the VIX, and I’ve been buying more time as volatility stays elevated.
The thesis is simple — the panic phase never lasts as long as people think. Even if the market corrects further, even if things stay messy, the surge in volatility fades once traders get accustomed to the environment.
And it doesn’t take a market recovery for that to happen. It just takes time.
That’s why this position makes sense. We’re not in a meltdown. We’re in a correction — uncomfortable, sure, but corrections normalize faster than traders expect.
Volatility only stays pinned at crisis levels when the market is truly breaking down, and we’re nowhere near that.
So while things look tense, it’s the same pattern we’ve seen again and again: Fear hits fast, then moderates long before price action stabilizes.
Why Global Conflict Works in My Favor Here
This part always surprises people. But historically, even the worst geopolitical shocks settle in faster than the headlines would suggest.
Markets don’t stay in panic mode indefinitely — they adapt. Global conflict becomes the new baseline, and once that adjustment happens, volatility starts drifting lower.
That’s one of the main reasons I like this VIX strategy.
Right now, the position I’m holding offers over 100% ROI if VIX drops below 25 by May.
I’m not asking for the world to suddenly calm down. I’m just betting on the market’s natural tendency to normalize after the initial fear spike.
And if VIX pushes higher — say toward 40 — that only sets up the next opportunity.
I’ll stagger a new position targeting below 30 by June. The more stretched volatility becomes, the better the setup for the next layer.
This isn’t a fast trade. It’s a structured, multi-month play built around how markets historically react to chaos: They absorb it.
How I’m Playing the Bounce… Or Lack Thereof
I’m watching for a bounce.
If we get a touch back up around the $670 level in the S&P 500 (SPY) to fill some of these gaps, that would be helpful. But the VIX position doesn’t require it.
Even if SPY moves lower from here, volatility will eventually curve down as the shock gets priced in.
That’s the nature of corrections. They feel dramatic while they’re happening, but they rarely sustain crisis-level volatility.
That’s why I’m stacking positions, giving myself time and letting the market do what it always does — digest the move.
Even in a worst-case scenario, normalization shows up faster than most traders expect.
And when it does, this trade pays.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
How to Target Decent Overnight Payouts This Week
There’s almost nothing better than waking up to fresh deposits in your account.
I know this because traders who followed my No. 1 overnight setup have received eight of those deposits in a row.
That’s eight consecutive trades where they collected payouts averaging about 25% overnight.
Now, I can’t make absolute guarantees about what the market will do next.
But if conditions cooperate, we may be able to keep this streak going.
We’re already lining up new trades for this week. And if you’d like to see how you can join the next overnight opportunity…
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. From 10/02/24 to 01/29/26, the average win rate was 80.2% on live published trades. The average return on options trades was 1.95 % over a one-day hold time, with an average winner of 23.88%
