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There’s something brewing in gold right now that I can’t stop thinking about.
While the market’s been chopping around and tech has been getting hammered, gold has quietly been building a base. And that’s setting up one of those rare “win-win” scenarios I love to trade.
Let me explain what I mean.
Back in March, when the gold trade started to crack, I drew three key levels on Gold (GLD): $400, $360 and $317. We caught a nice winner with a reverse iron condor at that first $400 level. Now GLD is sitting right at that second level around $360, and this is where it gets interesting.
Since June 22, GLD is essentially flat while Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is down sharply. That tells me GLD has effectively built a base during all this market chaos.
And gold isn’t the only precious metal worth watching. Silver (SLV) is in a similar spot, trying to establish a base of its own. If both metals begin attracting buyers, that could strengthen the case for a broader precious-metals move rather than an isolated bounce in gold.
Now, you might be thinking — wait, isn’t gold supposed to be a flight-to-safety play? Shouldn’t it be rallying if the market is dropping?
Here’s the thing: Gold has been unusually aggressive on the risk-on side for the past year, which is unusual. It’s been attracting liquidity when the market rallies, not when it falls. But that could be changing.
The Win-Win Setup
If GLD can maintain this base and show some momentum over the next one to two weeks, we could be looking at a rare dual-purpose trade — similar to what we saw at the beginning of the year.
Gold could rally on renewed risk-on interest if it was overcorrected, but it could also act more defensively as a flight-to-safety asset. In other words, it may have a path higher whether investors regain their appetite for risk or seek protection from continued market stress.
You’re not betting on just one scenario. You’re positioning for gold to work whether the market rallies or continues to struggle. That’s a setup worth paying attention to.
What I’m Watching
Right now, I’m watching both GLD and SLV as they try to build their bases. The key is momentum. If we get one to two weeks of sustained upside momentum, both become attractive candidates for position trades heading into year-end.
And if GLD breaks lower? The next level I’m watching is around $317 to $320. That would be another opportunity to reassess.
For now, I’m leaning into the idea that gold is setting up for something special. It’s held up while everything else got crushed, and if it can catch a bid from here, it could work in multiple market environments.
That’s the kind of edge I’m always looking for.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10:30 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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