You know the feeling—markets are green, the headlines are glowing, and your cousin who “swore off stocks” last year just texted you asking about call options again.
Yep. Retail’s back.
The S&P has rallied hard—despite GDP missing, despite big names like Apple and Amazon stumbling on earnings, despite tariffs and rate clouds still hanging overhead. If you had told me a week ago that both AAPL and AMZN would post underwhelming results and the market would rally 1% the same day, I would’ve said you were dreaming.
But that’s exactly what happened Friday.
And while the trader in me loves a good bull run, the contrarian in me starts to squint a little when everything looks rosy.
Because here’s the deal: sentiment doesn’t always follow logic—it follows emotion. And right now, emotion is swinging fast toward FOMO.
Here’s what I mean…
Retail traders got beat up pretty bad in March and April. Many stepped to the sidelines. Some threw in the towel altogether.
So when the market started running again in late April, those who had cash on the sidelines started feeling that itch. One green day turned into two. Then three. Then five. Suddenly, calls were back in vogue and “this time it’s different” was back in the air.
That’s not always a bad thing. Optimism can fuel momentum. But when that optimism outpaces the reality—like institutional volume still sitting on the sidelines, or a lack of real resolution on economic policy—it can set the stage for a whiplash moment.
So here’s the irony:
I’ve been the one calling for a big bull run…
I’m the one who will tell you @ 1pm ET today LIVE just how optimistic I am.
And yet, I am starting to be concerned about easy retail money setting up for a flush.
The truth is, we may be entering what I call a “decision zone.” We’ve reclaimed key levels (even overtaken the April 2 “Market Liberation” close), but we did it quickly and without full conviction from the big money. If the market holds here next week, that’s a strong sign. But if we see profit-taking, especially on light volume, don’t be shocked if we revisit some lower ground first.
Bottom line?
I’m still bullish in the long run.
My systems are still firing trades, and I’ll keep swinging when the setup’s there. But I’m also not ignoring the signs that we may be getting ahead of ourselves. When retail gets pulled in too fast, it often becomes the first group to get flushed out.
So this might be a good time to do something radical…
To get those details, join me this afternoon for a full breakdown of what’s really going on.
At 1 PM ET, I’m going LIVE with Roger Scott for a special Big Picture 2025 session — where I’ll walk through:
📍 When I think all-time highs could hit
📉 The 7 tickers I’m personally putting capital behind
🧠 And the exact strategy I’m using to stay clear-headed in the middle of all this chaos
This is my personal playbook — and yes, I’m putting real money behind every call I make.
Naturally, I can’t guarantee results or protect against losses… but if you want a real edge heading into the second half of 2025…
👉 Join us LIVE today at 1 PM ET for The Big Picture 2025.
— Nate Tucci
