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Ever notice how the market sometimes just refuses to cooperate?
Since Feb. 1, I’ve been tracking the same S&P 500 ETF (SPX) range trade. At this point, it’s become a Closing Playbook tradition — I pull up the same chart every single day…
And there it sits.
The same stubborn box that won’t go away. But here’s what most people aren’t seeing: The amount of rotation happening inside this range is wild.
Normally, when you see the kind of money flowing into Industrials (XLI), Energy (XLE) and Utilities (XLU) like we’ve seen lately, you’d expect a 5-8% correction.
Massive sector shifts usually translate into volatility and a pullback.
Yet somehow, the market’s held steady without giving traders the usual downside shock. Part of that resilience comes from something we’ve seen many times before…
When the market absorbs turbulence this well, even a small spark of tech leadership can flip the entire tone.
Technology (XLK) has a long history of stepping in during uncertain stretches and stabilizing broader indexes. A little participation from the sector that typically drives long-term momentum can go a long way toward tilting the balance.
And right now, that’s the wildcard that could be hiding in plain sight. Just a little optimism and a little tech engagement might be enough to push SPX above 7,000.
For a market handling this much rotation, that possibility isn’t far-fetched.
My Reaction When the Headlines Hit
When the latest round of weekend headlines dropped, my first instinct wasn’t panic. It was to look for how the parts of the market that trade around the clock were responding.
Bitcoin didn’t budge. That alone made me think sentiment wasn’t nearly as fearful as the headlines suggested.
Then Monday came with a flush and aggressive dip buying. Tuesday delivered another flush with the same aggressive dip buying. Then we got follow-through.
That kind of behavior doesn’t typically line up with a market on the verge of falling apart. It reminded me of how markets historically behave during geopolitical shocks.
When tensions flare — especially in regions that influence energy, currency and safe-haven flows — you often see four major markets react at once: equities, oil, bonds and gold.
The initial burst of volatility usually settles quickly as investors reassess what matters and what doesn’t. This time, the pattern played out again.
A fast hit, rapid recalibration and a return to focusing on what the market structure was already telling us. On Monday, I said we were 50-50 on breaking down or staying in the range.
And honestly, that’s still pretty much where I am. But that balance is shifting and the market is proving it can take a punch.
What I’m Actually Watching
There are a million headlines trying to pull attention in every direction right now. But I’m keeping it simple: All I care about is the range.
This single box on my chart has become the anchor for everything. If we break above 7,000, that’s the moment where structure meets momentum — where the resilience we’ve been seeing finally converts into bullish continuation.
Until then, I’m ignoring the noise. Because if the market can take geopolitical tension, aggressive sector rotation and a complete shift in leadership without breaking down, that’s a signal.
It means underlying strength is already there, waiting for a catalyst. And if Technology provides even a small boost — the kind we’ve seen lift markets out of uncertainty many times before — that breakout becomes far more likely.
So yeah, I’ll keep pulling up that same chart every day. And I’ll keep watching that same stubborn box.
Because when it finally breaks, the real move begins.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
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