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Intel crushed earnings yesterday, Brent crude surged past $100 on Middle East tensions, and tech sell-offs sent the broader markets tumbling. We’ll break our approaches to this down and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
Here’s something you need to hear today — and I mean really hear it.
The market is always right.
I don’t care what you think should happen. I don’t care what someone on CNBC said over lunch or what your favorite analyst posted online. If you’re on the wrong side of the trade, you’re the one who loses money.
That’s the reality of this business.
The market doesn’t reward conviction. It rewards being on the right side of price.
Why I Don’t Follow the Guru Circuit
I’ve never been a big believer in following market gurus.
I understand why financial television brings them on. They need opinions, predictions and people willing to make bold calls. But most of the time, you’re listening to someone else’s interpretation of the market — not the market itself.
One person’s opinion isn’t news.
It’s simply another viewpoint, and no single viewpoint deserves to drive your trading decisions.
Instead, I consume information from a wide range of sources. I compare different perspectives, look for where they agree and where they don’t, then measure all of it against what price is actually telling me.
If the narrative doesn’t match the chart, I’ll trust the chart every time.
The Only Opinion That Pays
When it’s time to put your own money to work, none of those outside opinions matter if the market disagrees.
Price is the final vote.
That’s why every trade begins with a plan. I know where I’m getting in, where I’m getting out and how much I’m willing to lose before I ever place the order.
If the market proves me wrong, I don’t argue with it.
I adjust.
Too many traders spend their time trying to prove they were right. That’s an expensive habit because the market has no interest in validating your opinion. It simply moves where supply and demand take it.
The traders who survive aren’t the ones who predict every move.
They’re the ones who stay flexible enough to change their minds when the evidence changes.
That’s the discipline I’ve built my trading around. I respect what’s in front of me, manage my risk and let the market tell me when I’m wrong.
Being right feels good.
Protecting your capital is what keeps you trading long enough to make money.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. Institutional Money Is Moving Fast — Next Trade InsideÂ
As institutional money moves fast, this massive asset is heating up for a historic run-up — and we are setting up our next weekly trade this week.
Last year, we bypassed the stock market completely and went a perfect 52-for-52.Â
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Disclaimer: Since 12/05/2024, the trading approach discussed today has published 66 trade alerts. 65 of 68 have returned as winning trades, for a 95.6% win rate. The average return per trade, winners and losers combined, has been 12.84% on an average holding period of 10 days. With a $5,000 starting stake, every trade targets about $841 in returns, and every trade you see today will be based on that $5,000 starting stake unless otherwise stated.
