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Here’s a question I keep getting asked, and honestly, it surprises me every time…
Why don’t I take more bearish trades?
The answer is simple math — and it’s the same math that’s held true for well over a century.
Looking closer at the last 20 years, the S&P 500 (SPY) has delivered an average annual return of 10.4%. That’s not a prediction or a theory. That’s what actually happened. And here’s the kicker: This pattern holds for roughly 150 years.
So when someone asks me why I don’t trade for the market dropping, my response is always the same: Why would you bet against a 10% annual edge?
Yes, the market pulls back. Yes, we get red days and red weeks. Sometimes we dip for a bit — maybe even into next week. But pullbacks are temporary. The long-term directional force is not.
And even when major geopolitical events hit — oil embargoes, revolutions, invasions — the market has always absorbed those shocks, found its footing and continued its long-term climb. The interruptions are real, but they’re never permanent.
The market always reverts to its dominant upward trend.
The Human Cycle of the Market
There’s a rhythm to how the market moves throughout the year, and once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
We consistently see strength around certain seasonal points, especially into March and again into October. Those periods line up with how volatility unwinds and how institutional positioning shifts.
It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a pattern that shows up often enough that you can’t ignore it.
We also usually get a push into year-end for the so-called Santa Rally. Summer months? Often choppy with a little rally as traders come back from vacation, then some more chop in early October. Then capital starts flowing again as institutions position for the close of the year.
It’s all part of how money moves and how institutions operate. Capital flows in waves. Big money rotates. Human behavior repeats. What feels random day to day makes perfect sense when you zoom out.
This is the structure of the market — not just price action on a chart but the collective psychology, timing cycles, and capital movement that play out year after year.
Trading With the Odds, Not Against Them
I’m not here to tell you that bearish trades never work. Sometimes they absolutely do. But I am asking you to think about where your statistical advantage lies.
When I look at the data — when I see that 10.4% annual average staring back at me — I know which side of the trade has the edge. And I’d rather position myself with the odds than against them.
Most of you are here because you want clarity in the market. You want to know what makes sense based on data, not emotion. And the data says the same thing every decade: The market goes up more often than it goes down, and it goes up more than it goes down when it actually falls.
The market rewards patience. It rewards aligning with capital flows. It rewards understanding how institutions move money and how cycles repeat. It punishes anyone who fights the trend without a damn good reason.
That’s why I don’t trade against the edge. And neither should you.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my Morning Monster livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then 30 Minutes of Awesome at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
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Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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