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The VIX just did something I’ve never seen before in all my years watching this market…
For 22 trading days, the market’s so-called “fear gauge” stayed locked in a two-and-a-half-point range. That’s not just unusual — we’ve never had this kind of low-volatility compression in VIX. When I pulled up the chart, I had to double-check what I was looking at.
Here’s what makes it even more interesting…
The VIX didn’t dip below 14 during this entire period. It doesn’t go much lower than that often. Sure, we occasionally see it fall toward 10, but that’s rare. After being suppressed for this long, the more likely scenario is a pop — and it could be outsized.
That’s the warning sign. When volatility gets this compressed for this long, things tend to get spicy on the other side.
I don’t normally place trades during my morning show — be sure to join me at 9:15 a.m. ET weekdays for Morning Monster! — but this setup was too good to pass up. So I walked through it live and bought some protection.
The Trade I Placed and Why October Makes Sense
I went hunting for VIX calls around 50 cents, which landed me at the 38 strike. I picked up five contracts for about $250 total because I like to keep these positions affordable.
It’s protection, not a lottery ticket.
The expiration matters here. I chose the October monthlies because they tend to offer the best liquidity. But there’s more to it than that. We have the Federal Open Market Committee meeting landing in the middle of quad witching that month — with quarterly options expiration, the end-of-month VIX roll and other positioning pressures colliding at once.
That’s a recipe for chaos during that stretch. If selling pressure builds between now and then, the Fed meeting could act as a catalyst in either direction. When that much positional uncertainty stacks up around quarterly expiration, the market has a funny way of making big moves.
Why I’m Covering My Six
I’m not saying the sky is falling. I’m saying I’ve been “covering my six” lately because a substantial downside setup has been cooking. These VIX calls give me an affordable layer of protection if volatility finally breaks higher.
Call me perma-cautious if you want, but I don’t ignore a pattern this extreme. The compression is historic, the potential catalysts are lining up and the downside risk deserves respect.
The setup is there. VIX has been suppressed for an unusually long time. And I’ve already positioned for what could happen next.
Stay sharp out there.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my Morning Monster livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then 30 Minutes of Awesome at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
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Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. My No. 1 trade for September…Â
History shows September is the only month on the calendar with a negative return, making standard stocks a minefield.
While most traders brace for impact, I’ve spent weeks tracking institutional money flows to isolate a high-growth tech ticker positioned for a massive move…
The Zoom room opens at 2 p.m. ET sharp for a complete breakdown of this hidden breakthrough. I hope to see you then!
