If you’ve been kicking yourself for missing the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, stop right there…
I’ve been tracking it closely and what I’m seeing suggests you’ll get a much, much better entry point than those who rushed in at the start.
Price action so far tells a wild story — SpaceX ripped from the IPO to $224 and then came crashing back down below the opening day price. The actual IPO price was $135 if you were lucky enough to get a few shares, and we’ve already dipped to just $12 above that level.
Here’s what I’m watching: I give it about a 95% probability that we’ll see a dip below $100 some time in the next 18 months before establishing a low and ripping higher.
That’s based on understanding how the liquidity structure works for this stock. And with volatility this extreme, it’s important to remember that global flows can magnify moves. Right now, certain international markets are aggressively buying U.S. equities with leverage, which can amplify both upside bursts and sharp pullbacks.
The Float Structure Creating This Opportunity
Only about 4.9% of the float is currently available. That’s extremely low, which helps create the kind of volatility we’ve already seen. But here’s where it gets interesting…
There’s a stairstepped liquidity unlock coming with insiders starting to sell in August, and the final 40% coming about 366 days after the IPO. The company went public on June 12 so somewhere around June 13 next year is when a major unlock happens for CEO Elon Musk.
Now, Elon isn’t going to sell his shares — he’ll sit on them. But that doesn’t stop the ripple effects. When that chunk of float becomes available, funds will need to rebalance their positions based on the newly adjusted float. That rebalancing alone can trigger program buying and potentially cause a solid pop in the stock around those unlock dates.
And beyond liquidity structure, remember that SpaceX isn’t just a space company — it’s also one of the significant players in AI. That crossover between advanced space technology and AI adds another layer of long‑term demand that funds will eventually have to price in.
The stock could easily dip and move around at lower levels until that major liquidity event. That’s your window.
What This Means for Your Strategy
If we get that sub-$100 dip, it’s probably a buying opportunity. The timeline could play out faster than 18 months — we could see a quick drop followed by a rapid recovery. To put finer detail on it, the technical structure allows room for a wash down even further, possibly tagging levels near $50 before reversing — though the highest probability remains a dip under $100 before a major pivot.
Understanding these potential landing zones helps you avoid chasing and instead position for a higher‑probability setup.
The earliest potential Nasdaq listing is on the horizon, which will bring additional institutional buying pressure as funds adjust their positions. That’s another catalyst to watch.
For now, I’m keeping that date just under a year from now circled on my calendar as a potentially key inflection point. Until then, patience beats FOMO every single time.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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