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This outlook is focused on a multi-month timeframe, so it’s not about reacting to short-term swings.
There’s a technical structure forming in gold right now that’s worth paying attention to, especially if you’ve been thinking the recent pullback is already over.
Gold hasn’t been able to push through the 618 Fibonacci resistance level, and that alone is a signal that the current bounce may not have the strength many are assuming.
More importantly, we’re seeing a clean sequence of lower highs develop. That pattern matters because it tells you sellers are still in control of the structure, even during rallies.
Until that sequence breaks with a clear, sustained higher high, the burden of proof stays with the bulls.
The Level That Changes Everything
There’s one level that would completely flip this read: $5000.
A decisive move and hold above $5000 would be the first real confirmation that the correction phase is likely over and that a new uptrend is taking hold.
It would also signal that the lower-high structure has finally been broken, which is the key condition for a trend reversal.
Until that happens, the structure still leans toward further downside risk. In fact, the setup leaves room for another leg lower, potentially even a move below $4100.
That area lines up with prior lows from March and represents a major technical zone where buyers previously stepped in.
Short-term rallies can absolutely still happen inside that broader structure, but they don’t change the bigger pattern unless they break and hold above resistance.
The Bigger Picture
This is a macro setup unfolding over months, not days. Even within a corrective structure, you can still get sharp counter-trend rallies that look convincing in real time.
That’s what makes this environment tricky — strength and weakness can coexist, but only one defines the trend.
Right now, the lower-high structure is still intact, and until that changes, the bias remains toward another test lower.
The levels are clearly defined, so the job now is simply to let price confirm its intent rather than forcing a narrative ahead of it.
As always, risk management matters most here. Don’t anchor too heavily to any single outcome — let the market prove the shift before assuming the correction is over.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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P.S. Geof Smith’s Friday Payday Challenge Is Underway
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Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. From 8/6/24 to 5/1/26, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 88.6%. The average return (winners & losers) was 5.23% over a 3-day hold time.
