🚨 I’ll be live at 2:30 p.m. ET with Alex Reid🚨
We’ll cover whether today’s big sell-off is a signal to short tech or a pullback to add into, my commodity analysis of FCX, USO, GLD, and SLV, how to trade the flows around the upcoming SpaceX IPO and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
There’s a reason you don’t feel any richer this year, even if you got a pay bump.
All those wage increases? They went straight into your gas tank. Every dollar that was supposed to make life easier ended up covering energy costs instead.
As someone joked: They didn’t have to pay tax on their tips, but they got to tip the gas station.
From the beginning of the year to now, gasoline is up around 60%. That’s not a typo. Every bit of wage growth has been overshadowed by that surge.
And that’s exactly why CPI is running hot. It’s driven almost entirely by gasoline. The rest of the components weren’t all that bad — it’s just the price of gasoline smoked it.
The 18-Cent Band-Aid
So what’s the administration talking about? Eliminating the federal gas tax for one month.
Sounds nice, right? Here’s the problem: The federal gas tax is about 18 cents per gallon. When you’re staring down around a 60% increase and dealing with crude oil moving $7 or $8 a day — swings of 7% to 8% — an 18-cent temporary break isn’t going to move the needle.
And here’s the kicker — that one-month suspension would cost the federal government somewhere around $4-$5 billion. That’s not gonna help the deficit at all. It’s a political gesture, not an economic solution.
And that 18 cents? It’s just a tiny sliver of the revenue stream. They tax you by transportation, they tax it coming out of the well, they tax it at the refinery, and they tax it at the pump.
They make a lot of money off oil and gas long before you ever fill your tank.
Where the Real Money Goes
Energy doesn’t just hit your wallet at the pump — it spreads everywhere. That’s why your grocery bills feel heavier.
When fuel costs spike, everything from shipping to fertilizer to farming becomes more expensive. And with the strain on agricultural output — we’re not gonna have very much wheat this year at all — food prices get pushed even higher.
This is why your commute costs more. Why your grocery cart feels pricier. Not to mention why that raise you were excited about in January feels like it never happened.
Energy flows through every corner of the economy, and when it surges, it drags everything with it.
Some people try to outrun it in creative ways. One trader joked about covering a big Chevron (CVX) bill by buying CVX stock that same day: Don’t worry about the bill, we made up for it.
Not everyone can play that game, and most households are simply absorbing the hit.
Until energy stabilizes, no 18-cent holiday or quick political fix is going to make families whole.
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Profit Panel equips traders to adapt to any market condition, by knowing when to trade aggressively and when to stand aside, live at 2:30 p.m. ET Monday-Friday.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. The ‘Friday Payday’ Logic Revealed
I recently went live to unveil a completely different kind of trading challenge.
The goal?
Targeting a $600 Friday payout (on a $5K stake ) from the market…
Using a setup that has nothing to do with market direction, breaking news, or volatility swings.
Instead of predicting the next move in stocks, tariffs, or geopolitical headlines.
You’re playing a recurring weekly pattern tied to one specific ticker.
When it appears, the opportunity window opens on Tuesday to position you for what could be a payday by Friday.
I call it the Friday Payday Challenge.
During the session, I explained:
- The unique ticker we trade
- The logic behind the weekly pattern &
- How traders can prepare for the very next opportunity.
No guarantees in trading, of course.
But if you missed the live reveal and want to catch up before the next setup begins forming…
Access the Full Breakdown Here
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. From 8/6/24 to 5/1/26, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 88.6%. The average return (winners & losers) was 5.23% over a 3-day hold time.
