🚨 I’ll be on at 11:30 a.m. ET🚨
See how CashBot uses a “Timed Advantage” to automatically identify and track high-frequency options income opportunities and more [tap to join us]!
We’ve been navigating a market defined by uneven momentum, pockets of strength and sectors that continue to rotate instead of trend. In an environment where many names are still searching for direction, it’s notable when a stock begins to diverge from both its peer group and broader market currents.
That’s exactly what’s happening with Robinhood (HOOD) right now — and it’s why it has my attention.
There’s something fascinating happening with HOOD that’s caught my eye and my capital. For months, the stock moved almost in lockstep with Bitcoin during its pullback from October through March. That connection made some sense at the time, given customer activity and general sentiment ties.
But recently, something changed — HOOD decoupled.
That decoupling isn’t just interesting, it’s important. When I saw the break, the first thing I looked for was confirmation, and we got it. We closed above the downtrend line, and while we didn’t manage to push through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $110, the price action above the downtrend told me the technical character had shifted.
That’s why I’m positioned long here.
The contrast becomes even sharper when you look across the space. Some related names, like Coinbase (COIN), aren’t flashing bullish signals right now.
They’re still stuck in heavier structures without the same signs of a clean reversal. That divergence makes HOOD stand out even more.
The Pattern That’s Repeated Twice — And Could Again
What really grabbed my attention is the seasonal behavior in this stock. When I pulled up the seasonality chart in TradingView, something jumped out — the last two years, 2024 and 2025, HOOD produced late-year rallies.
Same time of year, same pattern two years in a row.
Now I expect that same thing to play out again. Maybe the timing shifts slightly and carries into the early part of 2027, but the pattern suggests another late-year move is setting up.
If we simply repeat the same size rally as the last two cycles, that puts HOOD right up into the $280 to $300 zone. It’s not wishful thinking — it’s the same magnitude move happening at the same time of year for two years in a row.
The Risk Parameters I’m Watching
If things don’t go quite as smoothly, there’s a chance we stall at the $175 level, the 1.1448% Fibonacci extension. That could mark the upper end in a less bullish scenario.
Could this fail entirely and head lower? That’s always possible.
Support currently sits around $60. A drop back through the downtrend of highs would give me pause and a move beneath the daily Roadmap line pictured below would be another checkpoint worth respecting.
But here’s the encouraging part: We’ve recently seen crypto-adjacent winners push out cleanly after similar breakouts and structure shifts. HOOD is showing the kind of early behavior that can lead to that same type of expansion.
With the broader market mixed, crypto still unsettled and many names lacking direction, HOOD’s decoupling and technical break stand out. Add in the seasonal pattern lining up almost perfectly for a third year and the upside case is compelling.
Now we watch to see if history repeats itself again.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my Morning Monster livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then 30 Minutes of Awesome at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!
You can also follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram:https://t.me/+6TdDE7-F6GlhMmJh
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Would You Like 3 Hot Cash Opportunities per Day… Delivered on a Platter?
CashBot is showing folks what seems to be a better approach to income trading.
With up to three opportunities to target cash every day, CashBot is changing the game for day traders…
