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There’s a pattern developing in Netflix (NFLX) that has me putting up caution flags, and the action the past couple of days only reinforces it. NFLX dropped more than 3% on Wednesday, and that move fits perfectly with the technical weakness I’ve been tracking.
The market doesn’t care about our opinions or our wishes — it cares about supply and demand, buyers and sellers — and right now that objective read continues to point to downside pressure.
The stock recently consolidated under a key support level, which was already a red flag. But it gets even more concerning. After that consolidation, Netflix rallied, but the rally couldn’t break through to new highs.
Instead, we saw a downtrend of highs forming. When a stock can’t punch through resistance after bouncing from weakness, and each new high is lower than the last, that’s the market sending a message.
It’s telling you the buyers aren’t strong enough to take control, and the sellers are still in charge — and recent price action supports that conclusion.
The Pattern That’s Flashing Red
This three-part sequence is what has me concerned: First, the consolidation under support, then a rally that fails to break higher, and now those descending highs. Wednesday’s decline slots right into that sequence and strengthens the bearish case.
The next logical target if this pattern continues to play out? The $60 to $70 area. That’s where I’d expect Netflix to find its next meaningful support zone — a level that could attract buyers willing to step in and defend the stock.
But until we get there, the path of least resistance continues to point lower. And that’s exactly why I’m warning traders to be careful chasing NFLX right now.
How This Fits Into the Broader Trade Landscape
When I’m scanning the market each morning, I pull up the gainers list and look for stocks moving more than $2 premarket. Those names get added to the watchlist automatically — things that show early strength or volatility.
I put them on the list, check them out, see if momentum is lining up. That habit helps me stay focused on the strongest setups instead of getting distracted by names showing structural weakness.
That’s why it’s so important to contrast a chart like Netflix with something showing real potential.
Take Tesla. It’s actually showing signs of life. If it can break higher, then up near $454 it’s game on. That’s the kind of pattern where momentum can actually follow through. When one chart is setting up bullish and another is slipping deeper into a downtrend, the choice becomes obvious.
I know it’s tempting when you see a stock like Netflix bounce off lows to think you’re getting in at a bargain. But bounces inside a larger bearish structure often turn into traps. They look like opportunities, but they’re really just pauses before the next leg down — and yesterday’s slide is a reminder of that.
Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the clean patterns come to you. There are always stronger charts out there — you just have to focus on the ones actually showing life instead of the ones displaying warning signs.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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