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I’ve been tracking something in oil that most traders are completely missing — and it’s wild.
The pattern looks a lot like a classic bubble formation. You know the drill: initial big drop, some chop, then a bleed-off that takes way longer than you’d expect.
We saw this play out once already, and now we’re watching a secondary bounce that’s taking an amazingly long time to fade. If we break down below current levels, we could come all the way back down to the $60s.
But here’s where it gets really interesting…
The Monthly Close That Could Trigger a Massive Move
If we close the month above the $101-$102 level, it sets the stage for a potential pop to somewhere between $150 and $170 — or even $250. Yeah, you read that right… two hundred fifty dollars per barrel.
Now, before you think I’ve lost my mind, this is all based on monthly chart patterns. We’ve got until next Tuesday for the month-end close. If we don’t get that close above $101-$102 this month, we have another month to see if we can pull it off.
If we fail to get that monthly close, it’s possible we just head back down and make a lower low somewhere in the $45 area.
The other thing that’s crazy? This potential rally to $250 could take 45 months to play out. I know — four years sounds like forever. But think about this: The pattern actually started back in 2020. We ramped up, pulled back, and then set the stage for this potential rally into the $250 area.
The setup has been building for years.
Macro Pressures That Could Add Fuel to the Fire
One thing that could add even more volatility to the setup is what’s happening across the broader economy. For example, the helium squeeze isn’t getting nearly enough attention.
Every single advanced semiconductor production machine on earth requires a massive amount of helium per cycle to operate, and disruptions in that supply chain can ripple through chip manufacturing.
If semiconductor production slows, it can shake the tech sector, which already tends to amplify market volatility. When tech gets wobbly, you often see spillover into commodities, including oil, as capital shifts around looking for stability.
Then you’ve got geopolitical pressure tightening at the same time.
When major producers are cutting output and declaring force majeure, it hits the global supply chain fast. A double-digit reduction in natural gas production from a key exporter is the kind of thing that forces energy traders to reprice risk immediately, and oil tends to feel that shock quickly.
On top of that, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and other major chipmakers are already signaling they’re on edge. When a company like TSM says it is monitoring the situation, it’s usually code for preparing for potential disruptions.
If the tech industry starts sweating, markets often follow — and that kind of uncertainty can lift oil as capital rotates toward assets tied to hard demand.
What I’m Watching Next
That monthly close is everything right now. We need to get above $101-$102 to keep this larger pattern in play. Without it, the whole thesis changes.
On a side note, I’ve been watching gold too. It hit an initial target recently and we may be done on the downside. I was hoping for a bit lower — just a touch more would’ve been ideal. It could chop around and potentially flush out sometime in May, but honestly, it’s looking like the potential for a bottom to be in on gold.
The key with both of these setups is understanding that we’re dealing with monthly time frames and patterns that have been developing for years. This isn’t about catching a quick trade next week — it’s about recognizing where we are in a much bigger cycle.
Keep your eyes on that oil close next Tuesday. It matters more than most people realize.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. 3 Tickers Are Leading the Charge for the Next Couple of MonthsÂ
Don’t let the headlines fool you, you don’t need the market moving upward to target cash.
Over the next couple of months, I’ll be targeting three tickers for trade opportunities no matter what the overall market does.
Want to see what they are?
