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Sometimes the best opportunities hide in places nobody’s watching anymore. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) has been dead money for years — the initial high came back in 2018, followed by a relentless series of lower highs.
But something is changing, and the technical setup developing here has my attention.
Today I’m covering what looks like a five-wave structure up. In simple terms, that’s a sequence of three advances separated by two pullbacks. Technical traders often view a completed five-wave move as evidence that momentum may be shifting in a new direction.
The key level to watch is the downtrend line connecting CBRL’s lower highs. A sustained break above it would strengthen the case for a larger reversal, though this setup still needs confirmation.
The Ideal Retracement Setup
The ideal scenario would be a pullback toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone, currently near $36. This ratio is commonly used to identify an area where a correction may end before the broader trend resumes. The level will adjust higher if CBRL continues climbing.
I’m looking for a three-wave retracement that holds near the old downtrend line. If we get that orderly pullback and CBRL subsequently breaks above its newly established high, confidence in the larger move would increase.
Under that scenario, the next advance could project toward $200, potentially taking CBRL to new highs. After a period of consolidation, a longer-term extension toward $425 may become possible.
These are technical projections, not guaranteed destinations, and they depend on the pattern unfolding as expected.
What Could Affect the Setup
CBRL does not trade in isolation. Broader market direction, consumer spending, restaurant traffic, food and labor costs and interest-rate expectations can all affect investor sentiment.
Weakness in consumer-focused stocks or deteriorating business conditions could delay or invalidate the bullish chart pattern.
Could CBRL simply grind higher without a correction? It’s possible!
CBRL could also reach an intermediate retracement area near $86 before experiencing a larger pullback. Either way, there is still work to do before the setup is fully confirmed.
The chart is showing promise, but patience is key. We’re starting to see a higher high after years of lower highs, and the five-wave structure is taking shape. I’ll be watching whether the next retracement holds support and whether buyers can produce a decisive breakout.
That’s where the risk-reward profile could really shine.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. 3 Tickers Are Leading the Charge for the Next Couple of Months
Don’t let the headlines fool you, you don’t need the market moving upward to target cash.
Over the next couple of months, I’ll be targeting three tickers for trade opportunities no matter what the overall market does.
Want to see what they are?
