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There’s a methodical way I approach predicting where the market will settle during the trading day — and it all comes down to reading gamma exposure charts correctly.
Most traders look at the biggest gamma level and assume that’s where price will pin, but that approach ignores the dynamics that truly drive intraday movement.
My process starts with how calls and puts are arranged. On my charts, yellow represents calls and purple for puts. I weigh them against each other to see where the imbalance lies and ask the question that matters most: Where can they hurt the most traders?
When you understand that the market often gravitates toward max pain, you start to see why price behaves the way it does.
I also lean heavily on bullflow.io for this work. Its three-dimensional heat map layout makes it easy to visualize how positioning stacks up and how the pressure shifts across strikes.
Being able to see the contours of call and put exposure — not just flat numbers — gives me clarity that traditional gamma charts simply do not offer.
SPY Positioning Points to a Push Lower
For example, looking at the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) setup on a day recently, the biggest gamma level was only 529 million out to Friday — much smaller than the typical 600-700 million range. Small levels like this instantly grab my attention because they often mean the market has more room to move.
With calls dominating near-term positioning and only modest put support, the setup suggested a downward push would catch the most traders off guard. That pointed me toward the $692-691 region as the likely pin for the session. When calls outweigh puts into the morning, the path of most discomfort is often lower.
The concerning part is not the direction — it’s the weakness of the levels themselves. When gamma’s thin, it does not take much for price to slip outside the expected range, and SPY’s levels were weak enough that even its usual stabilizing zones looked vulnerable.
Why QQQ’s Weak Gamma Levels Raise a Red Flag
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) showed an even more troubling setup. The largest level for the day was only 236 million, which is tiny for QQQ. The real size sat farther out on Feb. 20, which means near-term positioning was light and not providing much structure.
With the bubble forming between $624 and $632, but with barely any conviction on either side, price had room to run. Weak levels like these mean the usual magnets that keep price contained simply aren’t strong enough to do their job.
When both SPY and QQQ show thin positioning at the same time, the market’s primed for bigger moves — and not always in a predictable way.
Gamma charts aren’t just about identifying the biggest number. They reveal where traders are exposed, where pain is concentrated, and where price is most likely to drift when market makers adjust their hedging. When levels are weak on both major indexes, caution is not optional — it is necessary.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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