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The AI pivot is about to blow up in a lot of faces, and I have four specific trade setups that could help you capitalize on the fallout.
We’ve been here before…
Every generation gets its own version of a runaway capital boom, and the current AI buildout looks a lot like past cycles where massive infrastructure spending ran far ahead of real demand.
Think back to the railroad explosion in the late 1800s, when money poured into tracks, land and rolling stock long before there were enough customers to justify it.
Eventually the system shook out, consolidation swept through the industry and only the most efficient operators survived. We’re seeing the early signs of something similar now.
Public miners dumped 15,000 bitcoins at basically the current bottom, the supply overhang is exhausted and companies that pivoted to AI are sitting on promises they cannot keep. When Q1 earnings hit in April and the AI revenue starts missing the mark, things could get ugly fast.
That’s where the opportunity lies — if you know where to look.
The Pain Trades: Shorting the AI Pivot Failure
First up, I’m looking at shorting AI‑pivoted miners like Cipher Digital (CIFR) and Bitfarms (BITF). These companies are at extreme risk. There might be some pain before the real drop, but I’m eyeing long puts dated to the fall.
When earnings land and the AI revenue they’ve been promising does not materialize, we could see a 40-60% decline from their highs.
Second, there is the infrastructure angle. That $665 billion capex spending spree has to come home to roost. When the music stops, shorting AI infrastructure ETFs becomes a basket play worth watching.
You could look at data center REITs with short‑term leases to hyperscalers or regional banks exposed to AI lending like the Regional Banking ETF (KRE).
For clarity, here are the distilled setups: Short the AI‑pivoted miners as the first trade, and long Bitcoin as the second. These two alone capture both sides of the coming reversal — the collapse of the weak and the acceleration of the strong.
The Profit Plays: Bitcoin and Efficient Miners
Now for the long side…
This is the regret phase trade — going long Bitcoin. With efficient private miners gaining market share and the AI pivot about to fail, we could see compelling price action. Short term, I am watching for a pop into the $78,000 to $80,000 area.
Beyond that, we could see a rally into the $90,000 zone.
But the structure matters. The current chart shows a potential downside setup that could trigger a sharp corrective move after the next run. That brings the possibility of a dip into the $30,000 to $50,000 range before a recovery back toward $100,000 if the cycle plays out like prior crypto winters.
You can play this through spot Bitcoin, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) or proxies like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Finally, there’s the long play on efficient miners. These operators mine at $50,000 to $60,000 and they’re surviving the shakeout. They’re still making money at current prices. If you can access private miner equity, great. If not, look at renewable energy proxies like Global X Uranium ETF (URA) because cheap frontier energy is becoming the new gold rush for both Bitcoin and AI.
My targets are set: CIFR, BITF and others are probably going to take a spill. Bitcoin is likely to rip, dip and rip again. The hyperscalers win. The infrastructure builders lose.
Position accordingly.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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