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My Telegram members picked a bold one today. Genius play or total trap? We’re breaking down the numbers — come see the verdict [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
Here’s something I’ve been thinking about lately. Everyone keeps saying the same thing…
We’re overextended. We need a real correction.
And you know what? They’re not wrong. But they’re also not seeing the full picture.
The Correction That Never Came
It’s true — the biggest pullback we’ve seen has been a measly 5.5%. That’s underwhelming when you consider the kind of long-term rally we’ve had and the rotation happening underneath the surface.
While the market has been drifting sideways, we’ve been watching a quiet but persistent shift in leadership. In the ongoing back-and-forth between the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY), QQQ keeps outperforming — sometimes only by a little, but often enough that it no longer feels like a coincidence.
That steady outperformance says a lot about where money is rotating and what traders are willing to lean into, even while the broader market chops around.
So yeah, the bears have a point. We haven’t had a real flush. No capitulation. No panic selling. Just shallow dips that get bought almost immediately.
But here’s what most people are missing…
After the incredible rally in 2025 that pushed us to all-time highs in February, we haven’t actually made another meaningful run past those highs. We’ve been stuck.
Grinding. Chopping around.
The biggest peak move we’ve seen above those highs has been just 1% to 1.2%. That’s it. Nothing that really stuck.
So while it’s true that we haven’t had a major correction, it’s also true that we haven’t had a real breakout to new highs in over five months — not since October.
Five months without a meaningful new high. Five months of consolidation. Five months of the market just sitting here, waiting.
What This Actually Means
This is why I think all cards are on the table for either direction.
The bulls can argue that we’ve had a time-based correction. We’ve consolidated for five months. We’re coiled up and ready to break out.
The bears can argue that we’re overextended. We never flushed. A real correction is still coming.
And honestly? Both could be right.
But there’s another layer. We’re seeing signs that institutional investors are starting to circle back into Technology (XLK) because it’s looking undervalued relative to everything else that has run.
When big money starts positioning in tech, it’s rarely by accident. Add in the fact that global uncertainty is pushing investors to look for places where capital can sit and be treated well, and suddenly the tech rotation doesn’t look like a coincidence — it looks like intent.
That’s the kind of market we’re in right now. It’s not screaming bullish. It’s not screaming bearish. It’s balanced — which means the next move, when it comes, is going to matter.
So I’m staying neutral, maybe even neutral bullish if this tech rotation keeps playing out. Because when the market finally decides which way it wants to go, it’s going to move fast. And I want to be ready.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
How to Target Decent Overnight Payouts This Week
There’s almost nothing better than waking up to fresh deposits in your account.
I know this because traders who followed my No. 1 overnight setup have received eight of those deposits in a row.
That’s eight consecutive trades where they collected payouts averaging about 25% overnight.
Now, I can’t make absolute guarantees about what the market will do next.
But if conditions cooperate, we may be able to keep this streak going.
We’re already lining up new trades for this week. And if you’d like to see how you can join the next overnight opportunity…
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. From 10/02/24 to 01/29/26, the average win rate was 80.2% on live published trades. The average return on options trades was 1.95 % over a one-day hold time, with an average winner of 23.88%
