1 Bitcoin Level I’m Watching — and the $100K Rally It Could Unlock

by | Feb 12, 2026

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Look, everyone wants to know where Bitcoin’s heading next. So let me give you the complete picture of what I expect over the next several months.

The immediate setup hinges on one critical level: $64,000. As long as we hold above that zone, I’m looking for upside movement.

Lose that support and we’re probably revisiting lower levels sooner than expected.

But assuming we hold, here’s the path I’m mapping out. And remember, the timeline could compress or stretch depending on market dynamics, but the general structure should remain intact.

The Three-Wave Rally That Could Take Us Back to Six Figures

I’m expecting Bitcoin to trace out a classic A-B-C wave pattern over the coming months. This isn’t going to be a straight shot higher — it never is with crypto.

The A-wave should push us up to an initial resistance zone, followed by a B-wave pullback that could be relatively shallow. Then comes the interesting part: a C-wave rally that I expect to carry us somewhere in the May to June time frame.

This move could take us as high as $115,000, though I’ve got an ideal target zone around $100,000. The key thing to understand is I don’t expect this rally to extend past July.

Macro conditions also matter here. With a labor market that’s clearly weaker than the headlines suggest, what do you think the Federal Reserve is going to do?

Well, probably cut interest rates. And as the dollar weakens, gold shines — it’s the original OG store of value.

Bitcoin often reacts in similar ways when the dollar softens, which could help fuel this rally.

We’re going to ping pong around a bit — that’s just how these patterns work. The timeline could compress or stretch depending on market dynamics, but the general structure should remain intact.

What Comes After the Rally

Here’s where it gets critical for longer-term positioning.

After we top out in that May to July window, I’m expecting a major flush lower. And I mean major.

I’m looking for Bitcoin to eventually work its way down into the $30,000 to $50,000 zone.

That larger move down should carry us through to around October. So we’re talking about a several-month journey from potential six-figure highs back down to levels we haven’t seen in quite some time.

This is the type of roadmap that helps you think about position sizing and timing. If we get that rally into summer, it’s probably not the time to be loading up on long-term holdings at elevated prices.

Instead, you’d want to be thinking about taking profits and waiting for that eventual flush to better entry points.

The beauty of having this type of structure in mind is that it gives you a framework. You’re not reacting emotionally to every wiggle — you’re trading with a plan based on wave patterns that have played out time and again in crypto markets.

Keep your eyes on that $64,000 support level for now.

Hold above it and we’re likely on our way to building out that A-B-C rally I’m expecting.

Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading

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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.

I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.

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