The Rational Trader: The Rally That Wall Street Slept Through

Good afternoon everybody. JD here with your Rational Trader market analysis daily.

In today’s video, I want to talk about something Wall Street seems to have completely missed: the new bull market.

Yep — I said it. We’re in one.

The Bear Market That Barely Registered

Back in April, the S&P 500 technically dipped into bear market territory — down 20% intraday.

I don’t believe we actually closed 20% down, maybe we did, maybe we didn’t.

But either way: if you blinked, you probably missed it. The selloff was fast, shallow, and quickly reversed.

Now? The market has rallied substantially. And I believe we’re in the early innings of a new bull cycle.

And that is showing up in the data.

Risk Appetite Is Back

The biggest signal I’m watching right now is IPO activity — and we’ve got a real boom forming.

Take CoreWeave (CRWV), for example. After a shaky start (thanks in part to tariff fears), this stock has tripled in value.

In fact it’s up over 15% just from Friday’s close to today’s.

That’s not normal in a bear market.

Now, I’m not telling you to invest in CRWV. I certainly won’t. I can’t tell you a thing about its core fundamentals.

But the appetite for risk is very telling and that’s what I’m looking at here.

Another one? Circle (CRCL) — yes, the crypto-linked firm. Since its IPO last week, it’s already doubled, with another big move higher just today.

Again, you don’t get that kind of price action in a market that’s scared of its own shadow.

Small Caps Are Taking the Lead

As I mentioned in a previous video, small caps tend to do well in June — and they’re delivering again this year, even with the 10-year Treasury yield ticking back toward 4.5%.

That tells me investors are stepping back into riskier names. This is what the start of a bull run often looks like — quiet, underestimated, and full of opportunity if you’re paying attention.

What Comes Next?

I’m not saying we’re going to melt up to new highs in a straight line. There will be pullbacks, there always are.

But this rally has legs… Unlike the bear market that was “blink and you’ll miss it”, this one could last for many months if not years.

And the people who act early — before Wall Street wakes up — are the ones who stand to benefit most.