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Undecided. That’s the only way to describe what we’ve been watching for months now.
One day up, next day down — over and over and over again since October. I don’t think I’ve ever seen consolidation this tight for months on end. It’s been a total coin-flip environment and I know it’s frustrating for anyone trying to trade with conviction.
But here’s where it gets interesting — and why I’m not worried about this chop.
When Weakness Shows Its Hand
Let me walk you through what happened recently. On Tuesday, we had a pretty big drop at the open, well below the 100-day moving average. My initial read was simple: We’d most likely close well below the 100-day, signaling a move toward the 200-day moving average.
That didn’t happen.
By 11 a.m. we got off the lows. By 2 p.m., stocks were already back above the 100-day moving average. Totally crazy. Then we had a good day followed by another small sell-off. Same pattern, different week.
What’s telling isn’t the chop itself — it’s what the chop is revealing. It seems like markets have been looking for a reason to go lower, especially after Friday’s big dip.
We’ve got the AI bubble concerns, wars, tariff news, gas is skyrocketing — plenty of catalysts. People are wanting the stock market to go lower and take a breather but it’s not, at least not yet officially.
And when you zoom out, it’s not just the indexes acting indecisive. Roughly one-third of the stocks in the S&P 500 (SPY) have already seen 10-15% swings this year.
That kind of internal volatility creates a strange backdrop where the surface looks calm but the currents underneath are moving fast. It’s no wonder the market feels undecided — it’s being held up by rotation after rotation instead of broad unified strength.
The Strength Hiding in Plain Sight
Here’s my take: If the stock market was actually weak, we would have already seen it curl and really head lower. The good news is it hasn’t completely given way, even with a lot of those tech names down pretty good.
You can even see this in individual setups. Earlier this year I took a lotto board trade on Cisco Systems (CSCO) because it was showing strength despite the broader chop.
Same story with Intel (INTC). Both names have been navigating the market’s whipsaw action in their own way, and that kind of relative strength is another hint that the foundation underneath this market isn’t nearly as fragile as people think.
Now I’m not saying we’re out of the woods, again, especially after Friday’s big sell-off.
But the market on average bottoms around March 16 each year. February and March are historically choppy periods. So this sideways grind? It’s not unusual. It’s actually right on schedule.
What I’m really hoping for is clarity. I’m hoping we get this dip, this flush to the 200-day moving average or those November lows so we can get rocking and rolling again. We need directional moves. We need wind in the sails.
But until then I’m watching closely — and taking comfort in the fact that this market is holding up better than it probably should.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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