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There’s something predictable about hurricane season — not necessarily the storms themselves, but how the market reacts ahead of them.
Every year, as headlines start hinting at potential activity, certain stocks begin to move before anything actually happens.
Home Depot (HD) is one of those names. Even with recent volatility, it’s been showing signs of wanting to push higher. There’s a subtle tightening that tends to show up this time of year as consumers start preparing for the unknown — stocking up on essentials like plywood, generators, and batteries.
That behavior shows up in the stock well before any real storm threat develops.
The Seasonal Pattern Most Traders Miss
This is a pattern that plays out consistently. Hurricane season officially begins June 1st, with peak activity typically falling in July and August. As that window approaches, demand expectations start to build, and the stock often reflects that shift early.
We saw it last year. The anticipation built, the stock moved, and even though storms didn’t ultimately materialize in a meaningful way, the setup still played out. That’s the key — the trade is based on expectation, not the outcome.
And it’s not just HD. These seasonal flows ripple through multiple sectors, including insurance, utilities, transportation, and retail. When weather becomes a narrative, capital starts positioning around it.
For me, this setup is simple.
I’ve set an alert at $341.55, which lines up with the recent high. If HD breaks that level, it starts to confirm momentum is building, and that opens the door for a move toward higher technical levels like the 50-day, then potentially the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
Until that happens, there’s nothing to do.
How I’m Approaching It
I’m not chasing this. The setup only matters if the level breaks and confirms.
If it does, I’ll look to participate in the seasonal move the same way I have in prior years. If it doesn’t, I stay patient. No guessing, no forcing trades.
That’s the advantage of having a defined level. It removes emotion and keeps the process clean.
Seasonal setups like this don’t require prediction — they require preparation.
HD tends to move ahead of hurricane season, not during it. The key is recognizing the pattern early and waiting for confirmation before acting.
If the level breaks, there’s opportunity. If it doesn’t, nothing changes.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. A Massive Shift Is On The Cards In The Market… Are You Prepared?
I recently went live to reveal the No. 1 play traders need to know to capitalize on a massive market shift.
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 21 trades, with 15 winners and six still open, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.05%, and the average hold time has been 16 days.
