Gold hasn’t exactly been cooperating lately. With interest rates spiking again, gold’s under pressure — and that can be frustrating for anyone tracking the longer-term setup.
But short-term volatility doesn’t alter the structural trend. When I zoom out and study the broader cycle, the signals continue to point toward something much larger building beneath the surface.
A major part of that conviction comes from analyzing gold relative to the S&P 500 through a five-month True Strength Index. That pairing gives a clearer read on where we sit in the cycle, and right now it suggests we’re still early in a multi-year window that historically runs four to 10 years.
We’re not in the late innings — we’re just getting started.
The Super Cycle Is Still Intact
Seasonally, the environment is mixed. The presidential cycle typically leans bearish for gold in this stretch, while the Fed cycle is doing the opposite — it’s creating a rare bullish window that often appears around leadership transitions and the early months of a new policy phase.
When conflicting seasonal forces collide, price action usually looks choppy even if the longer-term trend remains intact.
That’s exactly what’s playing out now. The structural case still points toward meaningful upside over the coming years. The long-term framework supports targets around $5,800 and potentially $6,200 as the cycle matures.
Some analysts are projecting even higher prices and while I’m not ready to adopt those upper-end targets, the overall direction remains clear. We’re early, not late.
Why I’m Not Chasing It Right Now
Discipline matters here: Gold’s suffering, it’s not giving us a pretty trend… And I’m not forcing anything until the setup aligns. With the war narrative elevated and interest rates pressing higher, the near-term trend is sloppy and reluctant to sustain momentum.
I don’t expect gold to rally aggressively until the underlying rate narrative shifts.
That’s why I’m continuing to run income-oriented gold trades — options, covered approaches and related strategies designed to generate yield even in a sideways market — while keeping outright bullish trades on pause. It’s a smarter way to approach a market that’s consolidating rather than trending.
When rates eventually ease, the impact won’t be limited to gold. Falling yields tend to lift financial and health care names as well, so those sectors are worth keeping on the radar as part of the broader macro picture.
For now, the main catalysts to watch are interest rate momentum and the larger geopolitical narrative. Those will likely be the triggers for the next meaningful leg higher.
The supercycle remains intact and nothing in the recent action suggests otherwise. When conditions shift, I’ll be ready to lean into it — but patience is part of the strategy.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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