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The market’s been awful lately, and a lot of that comes down to unpredictable headlines. I’ve said before that it’s been tough to make a clean end‑of‑week prediction because so much depends on what Trump decides to say on any given day.
That’s just part of the environment we’re trading in.
But despite all that noise, my technical view hasn’t changed. I’ve had a line drawn on my chart for several weeks now — 6,200 on SPX. That’s been my technical line in the sand, and I’m still watching it closely.
This level isn’t arbitrary. It’s been the anchor of my framework as I track how the index reacts after each bounce and pullback. Even with the back and forth we’ve seen, the structure still points toward that number.
Why 6,200 Matters
Once we slipped below the 200‑day moving average (MA), I started looking for a move toward 6,200. We’ve had a couple of bounces — nothing unusual — but I don’t think the market is done working its way down to that zone.
In reality, the chart points more toward 6,150, but rounding to 6,200 keeps the level simple and consistent.
And here’s why it’s meaningful. When I pull up a weekly chart, you can see that 6,200 represents the previous peaks from before the whole tariff situation last year. That gives us historical support at that level — it’s not just a number I pulled out of thin air.
There’s also the added bonus of confluence. If you look at the weekly chart, the 100‑week MA is probably going to line up right around that same level. That creates what I call a double support scenario, which gives the market a sturdier foundation to stabilize or stage a reversal.
Even with that structure underneath the market, it’s important to stay realistic about the path we might take to get there. The reality is we could see more bounces along the way. Markets don’t move in straight lines. But having this technical framework gives me a clear level to watch — and a plan for where I’m looking to potentially add exposure when we get there.
The Technical Framework Going Forward
The 6,200 area is only about 3.5% below current levels, so it looks farther on the chart than it actually is. What matters is the combination of historical resistance flipping into support and the major weekly moving average converging near the same point. That kind of alignment doesn’t show up often, and when it does, I pay attention.
Until the chart tells a different story, that level remains my focus. The day‑to‑day swings may continue, but the broader setup hasn’t shifted. When we finally approach that zone, that’s when I’ll be looking for the next set of opportunities.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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P.S. It’s Not the Time to Chase for 20x MoonshotsÂ
With volatility elevated and fear overtaking the market…
You might not see the typical surge that happens during regular market hours…
And I’ve laid out a setup that’s able to spin a tiny 1% stock move into a 100% options payout.
