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There’s a support level I’ve been watching closely — and it just got tested again.
It’s not some complicated indicator or proprietary algorithm. It’s about as straightforward as it gets: the 100-day moving average.
The S&P 500 (SPY) just touched this exact level late last week, right where we’ve seen reliable bounces before. Back in November, this was our big buying point — and it delivered exactly what we were looking for.
I predicted that flush to the 100-day back then rather than the 50-day. A lot of traders thought we’d bounce sooner, but the market needed to get down to that 100 before finding real support. We got that bounce, chopped around for a while and eventually hit all-time highs.
Now we’re right back at that same 100-day MA.
Why This Level Keeps Working
There’s nothing fancy about it. It’s called a simple moving average for a reason. But simple doesn’t mean ineffective. When you look back over the past year, the pattern is clear — consistent support around this level.
Seasonality also plays a role. Certain parts of the year naturally bring increased volatility or profit-taking, and those broader behavioral cycles can influence how the market reacts when it approaches a key moving average.
Sometimes that means the first touch gives us the bounce, and other times it means we get a deeper pullback before buyers step in. But the 100-day still acts as an anchor point during these seasonal flows.
Does it work every time? No. There’s at least one example where the market broke below it. But more often than not, the first interaction with the 100-day produces some kind of tradable reaction — even if the broader trend is still correcting.
What the Converging Signals Tell Us
What makes this moment particularly interesting is that several indicators are lining up at once. The VIX sitting above 20 is a big one, though it fell back below on Friday.
When fear starts taking control, premiums rise and markets often overreact. That elevated VIX level hasn’t held like this since the November pullback — and that confluence of fear plus technical support turned into a strong opportunity back then.
We’re also seeing stretched put-to-call ratios and cooling momentum at the same time we’re landing on this well-established support level. When multiple signals converge like this, it often strengthens the case for a near-term bounce.
And historically, this is exactly the zone that has brought buyers back in. Throughout 2025, the 100-day acted as support — sometimes launching strong moves higher, other times offering smaller but still tradable bounces before the market tested lower levels.
Either way, the pattern has been reliable enough that ignoring it would be a mistake.
Of course, elevated volatility adds risk. When the VIX is above 20, traders need to be disciplined. Wide ranges can shake out weak hands, but they also create opportunity for those collecting premium or scaling in with clear risk levels.
Managing position size, defining stops and respecting the increased velocity of moves become essential when fear is in control.
That’s the real beauty of focusing on simple, proven levels. You know where you’re wrong. You know where your edge is. And when the market gives you the kind of alignment we’re seeing now — technical support, seasonal tendencies and elevated fear — that’s when you pay attention.
This is one of those moments.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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