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Recently, I’ve been getting questions from traders who think we might be heading into a bear market. I’ll be upfront — I don’t personally believe that’s where we’re headed right now.
But whether you agree with me or not, it’s crucial to understand how the put-call ratio (CPC) behaves differently depending on market regime.
This isn’t just theory. It’s about knowing when your signals are giving you meaningful information versus when you’re interpreting them through the wrong lens.
How the CPC Buckets Shift in Bear Markets
In a typical environment, my normal CPC range sits between 0.75 and 1.0. Those numbers form the backbone of my approach — I buy when the CPC rises above 1.0 and take profits when it drops below 0.75. That structure works well when fear levels move within their usual bounds.
However, in a bear market those levels shift higher. Fear becomes persistent, not temporary, and the entire CPC landscape moves with it. In that environment, the buying threshold pushes to 1.2 and above, while the selling threshold moves to 0.85 and below.
The indicator itself doesn’t change — what changes is the market regime that gives the indicator its meaning.
This is why traders misread setups that look familiar on the surface. The underlying regime already changed, but their expectations stayed anchored in the old framework.
My Current View and How I’m Positioned
Right now, the CPC is sitting in the middle of its usual range. If you were able to buy last week when we got that dip and the CPC spiked higher, I hope you took advantage of it — that move reflected short-term fear, not a deeper shift in trend.
At the same time, the market’s internal health is not especially strong. Many stocks are dropping even as the S&P 500 moves higher. When breadth weakens like that, it doesn’t automatically mean a bear market is forming, but it does signal that the advance is becoming more selective.
Despite that, I’m still using the bull market CPC framework because I don’t believe we’re moving into a bear market here. That means I’m working with the 0.75 to 1.0 range and positioning accordingly. I’m buying, not selling, and that should make my conviction clear.
If the market shifts into a bear phase, I’ll adjust immediately — raising my thresholds and interpreting every CPC move through a different lens. No indicator is static. Context gives it meaning, and understanding that context is what keeps you aligned with the market’s actual behavior.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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P.S. Extracted From My Private Trading Files
Nate and I will open the room for today’s LIVE class at 11 a.m. ET SHARP!
That’s when I’ll break down three of my most reliable, rule-based trading tactics for the first time.
Up until now, these “hacks” have been locked away inside my Private Trading Files.
But today you’ll see them step by step, with full logic, rules and implementation.
The reason I handpicked the three you’re about to see is because after seeing how they work and the pattern they follow, it’s clear they’re the ones most suited for the current market…
We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. What you will see today are some of the research services of the “Private Files” which are based on 100% backtesting. These services have NOT been shared publicly before this class. There were bigger winners, there were smaller winners and there were losers.
