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Despite the recent volatility that shook up the precious metals market, I’m standing firm on my gold supercycle thesis. The shakeout rattled some traders, but that pullback was actually a great buying opportunity. And unlike the Nasdaq or the S&P 500, gold hasn’t gotten back to all-time highs yet, which tells me there’s still room to run.
I’m planning to do a complete reanalysis of gold soon to provide fresh targets now that we’re back in play for this supercycle. But for now, here’s where I see things heading and how I’m navigating the current setup.
The Targets That Matter
With gold trading around $4,900, my conservative target sits at $5,800. That leaves meaningful upside in this cycle and supports the view that we’re still early in the broader trend. On the more aggressive side, Geof Smith — who has nailed every major gold rally going back decades — has a target of $7,500.
“We haven’t seen new highs,” Geof said in a text conversation. “And my guess is … we will get to 7500 in the next year or so.”
When someone like Geof, with that kind of track record, lays out a level like that, it deserves serious attention.
Those targets aren’t pulled from thin air. The structural drivers behind this supercycle remain in place, and the recent move higher only reinforces the broader trajectory. Whether you’re leaning on my $5,800 target or the more ambitious $7,500, the upside case is still very much alive.
How I’m Trading It
I’m centering my strategy around the 100-day moving average (MA) at $432 on the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) as support. That gives us tighter parameters than we had during the breakout above the 50-day MA, but there’s still strong premium to work with.
I’m using bull put credit spreads with $5-wide strikes, building positions around this support zone. The flexibility of these spreads is what makes them effective — gold can drift higher, chop sideways or even pull back about 4% over the next month, and the trade still produces income.
When volatility rises, it pays to make clean tactical adjustments. Sometimes the best move is to simply exercise a put when a contract approaches expiration and the setup no longer offers the right risk-reward. It’s a straightforward way to neutralize exposure without getting caught in unnecessary swings.
Risk management matters just as much as direction. Not every trade is going to be a winner, and sometimes taking a partial loss is the right call. I’ve taken losses as small as $0.86 on positions that required more than $4.00 to fully recover, and accepting that early kept capital free for better opportunities.
That’s part of surviving these cycles — knowing when to step aside and when to press the advantage.
The recent shakeout tested conviction, but the long-term picture hasn’t changed. We’re still early in the super cycle, and I’m positioned accordingly.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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