🚨I’ll be live at 10 a.m. ET with Nate🚨
 I’m about to go live with Nate, JD and Silas to walk through the morning’s moves. We’re comparing notes and answering questions in real-time so nobody’s left trading on an island today [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]!
We’re sitting in a unique moment. The new Fed chair is set to take office around May 24, and historically, this is exactly where the melt-up phase begins to accelerate.
The timing aligns almost perfectly with where the market sits right now… though it looks like the melt-up could begin early this year if Wednesday’s price action keeps up…
Which adds urgency to how we position through the next several weeks.
When you study previous transitions, the market tends to surge into the appointment and continue higher for another month to month-and-a-half. That puts us squarely into a melt-up window that often extends into mid-June.
So far, the behavior has been spot on — especially after four of the mega-cap tech names reported earnings and the Nasdaq turned into a sea of green following last Wednesday’s consolidation.
The next four weeks of May still carry significant potential, and the structure beneath the surface is stronger than most realize.
Why the Nasdaq Could See Double the Gains
Looking back at historical Fed transitions, the Dow typically posts gains of about 7-8% during this phase. But the Nasdaq, which tends to outperform when momentum shifts, often outpaces the Dow by a wide margin. If the Dow pushes 7%, the Nasdaq can push closer to 15% — and given the current setup, that range looks reasonable.
What’s interesting is that technology leadership isn’t concentrated in the same narrow group that drove markets last year. The strength is broader now, extending well beyond the core mega caps.
That opens the door to strategies that blend broad exposure with targeted high-beta names. Pairing something like the Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) or the Technology Select Sector (XLK) creates a balanced but powerful posture for this phase of the cycle.
The Drawdown Nobody’s Talking About
The melt-up, however, is only the first act.
The second act has been remarkably consistent for more than a century. Across virtually every Fed chair transition since 1916, the market has experienced a meaningful drawdown — over 5% in almost every case. The lone exception was Janet Yellen, which highlights an important point: The pattern is strong but not absolute.
When you extend the window to a full year, the average drawdown comes in around 14.8%. That doesn’t signal a bear market. It simply means that at some point in the first 12 months, markets pull back enough to create opportunity.
And when you line up previous cycles with today’s environment — especially the parallels between the tech boom and the current AI expansion — the timing often clusters around midsummer.
July or August has repeatedly shown up as the moment when that pullback materializes.
This is where things get exciting. Because after those drawdowns, the rebound phases tend to be explosive. That’s when the best long-term entries show up, and it’s precisely why I’ll be rolling out the Dream Portfolio framework — the best ways to play a big sell-off — as we approach that window.
The goal is simple: Scale into the right names at the right prices, using the correction as a springboard rather than something to fear.
Volatility isn’t a threat here — it’s the setup. The opportunity emerges not despite the drawdown, but because of it. That’s why a watchlist, a plan and disciplined execution matter more now than ever.
For the moment, the melt-up remains the dominant force. But the smarter move is positioning for both phases — strength through mid-June and strategic accumulation if the expected pullback arrives later this summer.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. The Overlooked Stocks That Soar Minutes After the Open
Let’s forget about the drama in the Middle East for a second…
This Monday, Roger Scott is kicking off one of the boldest moves of his entire career, and I’ll be alongside him.
Roger will put $50K of his own money into a brand-new approach where traders like us get to target extra cash within the first 30 minutes of every market day.
You don’t need that much to tag along, and all you have to do is place a basic trade just minutes after the opening bell…
And if things work out, have a shot to hit the daily goal completely hands-free from there.
As you’ll see…
Roger’s not piling that cash into NVDA or AAPL or any “popular” stocks!
But rather the tickers you won’t see “experts” on Fox and CNBC talk about.
We’ll give you all the details at 1 p.m. ET this Monday.
This is one of the boldest moves of his entire three-decade career, solely dedicating $50K to trading what he calls 30-Minute Flyers.
Overlooked stocks that have shown the power to soar 10%, 20 % and even 30% in the first 30 minutes after the opening bell.
Giving you the room to get in and out of the markets before any surprises strike.
You’ll also see why Roger’s so confident of piling that much money into these High Flyers…
You’ll see the overlooked force powering these 30-Minute windows that folks in the media will never talk about…
Most importantly…
You’ll get the chance to join in trading the 30-Minute Flyers setup that could trigger at any moment next week…
Roger will spill one of the most stunning secrets he’s ever come across in his career this Monday.
So he wants you to keep the details about this exclusive event closely guarded.
Naturally, we won’t make reckless promises when it comes to trading, but….
We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The results shown are from LIVE signals from 12/29/25 – 4/20/26. The result was a 63% win rate, a 3.3% average return (winners and losers), and an 11.8% average win with a 1-day hold time.
