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There’s something deeply satisfying about watching the market follow a historical pattern with precision…
And that’s exactly what’s happening right now in December.
You’ve probably heard me say this before: December is bullish. But recently I came across something that takes that general idea and gives it real structure. Jeffrey Hirsch, who I follow on X (aka Twitter), posted a detailed breakdown of December’s intraday seasonal patterns, and I’ve been using it as my roadmap ever since.
What caught my attention immediately is how closely we’re tracking the script. The market has moved exactly to a T — a slight push higher at the beginning of the month followed by the consolidation we’re in now. We’re sitting right around trading day nine (through Tuesday), which lines up almost perfectly with what the seasonal pattern projected.
This isn’t guesswork. It’s data. And when the market behaves this consistently with historical norms, it gives me confidence in what’s likely coming next.
The Santa Claus Rally Is Still Ahead
The typical Santa rally is very bullish — we’re talking about a 2% average move in the S&P 500 (SPY). That’s not a minor blip. That’s a legitimate end-of-year push that tends to reward patience and positioning.
Everything is looking perfectly aligned for this to happen again barring any sort of unexpected news. And when I say aligned, I mean the market action, the seasonal tendencies and even the technical indicators are all pointing in the same direction.
I also cross-referenced this with the CPC put-to-call ratio, which has popped back to a healthy middle range at 0.91 (through Tuesday). Seasonally, we’re in a great spot, and with the CPC rebalancing back into the middle, there’s a real possibility the market simply continues higher from here without needing a deep reset.
The setup is cleaner than it was even a week ago.
What I’m Watching for Next
My base case for the rest of December? I’d be happy to see another little breather here — just consolidation, even if it’s a slight chug higher — so we can really fill up that gas tank before resuming higher.
This isn’t about forcing the issue. It’s about letting the market do what it historically does well during this window. We’re firmly inside that expected consolidation zone right now, and everything suggests we’re building energy for a strong end-of-year move.
I know there are always wildcards — Fed commentary, headline risk and geopolitical noise… what Trump says or posts on the internet. But the setup is clean. The seasonal pattern is holding. The CPC is supportive. And the technical backdrop points toward continuation.
So if you’re feeling uncertain about this consolidation, don’t be. This is the script. And so far, we’re following it to a T.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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P.S. The Next ‘Viral Stock’ Is Flashing as We Speak
My star student has leveraged “social momentum” on stocks to outpace every hedge fund out there in the last three years.
And now he’s spotted another ticker set to go “viral” any moment from now.
