Let’s talk about the market setup nobody wants… but we might actually need.
Right now, we’re sitting near all-time highs in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq’s been ripping, and July seasonality is historically one of the strongest stretches of the year.
But here’s the thing — a shallow pullback could be the most bullish outcome right now.
I said it last week and I’ll say it again: If we can get a quick breather, just a modest cooling off to retest prior highs or even dip back into a recent breakout zone, I’ll be mega bullish.
It doesn’t have to be a 4–5% flush — just a little digestion that lets overheated names consolidate and reset. That gives us better entries, cleaner setups and stronger upside momentum heading into earnings.
Remember: July tends to deliver both high win rates and big moves. So if we get a bit of downside now, it’s not a red flag — it could be fuel.
And if we don’t get the dip? That’s fine too. I’ll still trade the upside. I just won’t chase with full-size positions until things set up more cleanly.
Bottom line: Whether we get a breather or a breakout, I’m staying active. But the more disciplined we are with timing and entries here, the better we position ourselves for the second half of July.
We break all of this down during our “Opening Playbook” sessions daily at 10 a.m. ET — see you there!
A Stock to Watch: VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
An ETF to keep on your radar is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), as it tends to be bullish at the start of July.
SMH has been on a massive run since it hit a low back in April, so this seasonal trend has a lot of momentum behind it.
Buying SMH on July 9 and holding for 24 days has delivered an average return of 7.34% over the past several years. While past performance is no guarantee, it’s definitely something to consider as we move into July.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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