Nate Tucci went LIVE with Roger Scott to spill the beans on Nate’s single best ticker in the stock market right now!
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Hey folks,
It’s still early in the trading day as I write this, but I wanted to give you a quick pulse check on how things are shaping up so far.
You might still be thinking about last week’s GDP number. It came in negative — which shows the economy shrank in the first quarter of the year — and that spooked a lot of people and triggered the usual chatter about recessions.
But here’s the thing…
The number itself is a little misleading.
Why? Because it was heavily influenced by something most people missed: the early-April tariff push.
As soon as tariffs were announced, importers rushed to get goods into the U.S. ahead of the deadline.
That surge in inbound shipments swelled inventories — not because demand was falling, but because buyers were trying to beat the clock.
At the same time, consumer spending remained strong. So you had solid demand, front-loaded supply, and high inventories — which distorted the GDP print and made it look weaker than it really was.
That’s why, despite the initial scare, markets rallied on Friday. Once traders dug into the data, those recession fears started to ease.
Now this morning, we’ve got another spark. The ISM Manufacturing Index came in above expectations — a bullish sign.
If you’re not familiar with ISM, it’s a monthly report from the Institute for Supply Management that tracks how U.S. manufacturers are doing.
Numbers above 50 indicate growth; below 50 means contraction. Since manufacturing is a big piece of the economy, the ISM reading can move markets fast — and that’s what we saw this morning at the open.
Meanwhile, gold is quietly climbing.
Why? Because it looks like China has stopped dumping gold — at least for now. That’s helping prices rebound and move back toward the levels we saw earlier in April.
It’s a lot to digest for a Monday morning, but the takeaway is this:
Not all headlines are created equal.
When you understand why a number looks the way it does — and what big players like China are doing behind the scenes — it becomes easier to stay a step ahead.
Stay sharp,
—Geof
