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Most traders don’t lose money because they’re bad at reading charts.
They lose money because they insist on fighting the market.
I’ve seen it repeatedly — traders forcing trades that don’t align with what the broader tape is doing.
They find a strong-looking setup, ignore market context and then wonder why it fails.
The market doesn’t care how good your idea is if you’re positioned against momentum.
Why Market Direction Still Matters
If the market’s green, especially on names like S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ), your odds improve dramatically by looking for calls instead of forcing puts.
That doesn’t mean every stock goes up on green days, but it does mean you’re swimming with the current instead of against it.
When markets are opening lower and selling off day after day, the easier trade is usually puts.
You can still find defensive names that move higher, but you’re stacking the deck against yourself if you ignore the dominant trend.
This isn’t about being perfect. It’s about making trading easier.
Use the Market as a Filter
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is falling in love with a thesis.
They decide if a stock “should” go down or “has to” bounce, and then keep pressing the trade even when price action disagrees.
That’s when accounts bleed slowly.
Aligning with the market doesn’t mean you can’t take contrarian trades.
It just means you should be intentional.
Opposite-direction trades work best when you understand you’re playing on hard mode.
Trading is hard enough without trying to prove the market wrong.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. Institutional Money Is Moving Fast — Next Trade InsideÂ
As institutional money moves fast, this massive asset is heating up for a historic run-up — and we are setting up our next weekly trade this week.
Last year, we bypassed the stock market completely and went a perfect 52-for-52.
Access the private inner-circle briefing here before the next trade drops.
Claim Your Exclusive Spot Here
Since 12/05/2024 through 9/14/2026, the trading approach discussed today has published 82 trade alerts. 75 of 84 have returned as winning trades, for a 89.3% win rate. The average return per trade, winners and losers combined, has been 6.07% on an average holding period of 12 days. With a $5,000 starting stake, every trade targets about $841 in returns, and every trade you see today will be based on that $5,000 starting stake unless otherwise stated.
