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The government just spent another trillion dollars to service debt, the dollar has been sliding for a year and a half, and inflation keeps chipping away at your purchasing power.
Put that together and it’s not hard to see why precious metals still have so much room to run.
Gold is probably heading to $7,000 to $7,500 by year-end, and silver could hit the $140 area.
And before you think I’m just pulling numbers out of thin air, let me show you why this recent sell-off doesn’t shake me one bit.
I’ve been long SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) for years, and I keep buying, selling and adding to those positions.
Why? Because I think they’re probably the best investment out there right now.
The Sell-Off Is Technical, Not Fundamental
Here’s what most people miss when gold pulls back and panic sets in — these sell-offs happen during contract rollovers. It’s a pattern that repeats like clockwork.
So the pullback you’re seeing isn’t weakness, and it isn’t fundamentals breaking down…
It’s just the mechanics of the market doing what they always do.
Look at the history. We rolled from the February contract to the April contract. Before that, we went from December into April. Before then, August into December.
Every single time, there’s a sell-off as traders dump one contract and move to the next.
The fundamentals haven’t changed. The spending, the weakening dollar and persistent inflation are all still there.
Meanwhile, there are far more calls being bought than puts in gold and silver — and if there are puts, it’s just to hedge positions.
Smart money is buying it.
How I’m Playing It
My approach is simple: average down, average in. Over the long haul, it pays off.
Sure, there’ll be some volatility. That’s just the nature of the game right now.
But when I look at the bigger picture — the spending, the dollar weakness and inflation that isn’t going anywhere — precious metals remain the cleanest hedge I can find.
So while everyone else is wringing their hands over a technical sell-off, I’m doing what I’ve done for years: buying the dips and holding my positions.
Because when gold is knocking on $7,500 later this year, you’ll wish you’d seen this sell-off for what it really was — a gift.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. Don’t Let the Recent Gold Dip Fool You
I’m the one who nailed the Gold Supercycle call back in 2023…
And now I’m seeing the setup for a third mega catalyst that could make gold’s recent 150% run look like a drop in the bucket.
I’ll reveal the No. 1 trade to take advantage of the imminent run, the same one that delivered a perfect win rate last year.
Are you interested?
Disclaimer: We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but we cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Since 12/05/2024, the trading approach discussed today has published 54 trade alerts. All 54 have returned as winning trades, for a 100% win rate. The average return per trade, winners and losers combined, has been 16.88% on an average holding period of 9 days.
