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We’ll cover inflation volatility, my commodity insights, and why the “ending” war is suddenly heating back up [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
The dollar’s been on a tear lately, and I’ve had a lot of traders asking if now’s the time to jump in with calls.
Here’s the deal — I’m holding back…
We’ve watched the dollar climb from $96 back toward $100. With the geopolitical drama in the Middle East, a rising three-month T-bill yield near $3.68%, and the Fed acting more hawkish, it makes sense the greenback is strong.
But when I looked at the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) chart, one thing stood out.
Resistance Is Fighting Back
The dollar is sitting at a major resistance level in a messy chop zone — price has stalled here before.
On Monday, the DXY briefly hit $99.69 and then pulled back. Buying calls right now? That feels like rolling the dice.
You’re hoping it punches through a level that’s held before, and if it doesn’t, premiums can vanish fast. I’d rather wait for a pullback or a clean breakout.
If you want in without chasing the $100 DXY ceiling, the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) is a cleaner way to play it — but timing matters.
Right now is the middle of the range — no man’s land.
Why This Week Demands Patience
Two big events could move the dollar hard — or knock it back.
CPI comes Wednesday, and if inflation prints above 2.7%, the hawkish Fed story gets a boost.
Then the FOMC meeting on March 18 is the wild card.
Rates are almost certain to hold at 3.5-3.75%, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about the Iran-driven oil spike will dictate how high the dollar can go.
Until then, chasing at resistance is basically gambling.
Options are pricey right now with CPI on the way.
Even if the dollar moves in your favor, an IV crush after the report could eat your gains if you’re buying short-term calls.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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P.S. Why the Price of Silver Could Rise Steeply
The pressure is on Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to drastically lower interest rates.
Historically, this directly impacts silver prices and I doubt this time would be an exception.
I already have plans in place to play this move while it happens…
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 18 trades, with 15 winners and three still open, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.05% and the average hold time has been 16 days.Â
