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There’s a question I got recently that made me stop and look at something I hadn’t paid much attention to: PENN Entertainment (PENN).
I’ll be honest — I’ve never traded PENN. But when someone asks about a stock and ties it to a business cycle, I’m going to dig in. And what I found was pretty straightforward: The calendar might be the edge here.
It actually reminded me of how different markets behave…
Take Bitcoin — it’s chaotic. You can have the right idea and still get whipped around because there’s no anchor to a seasonal cycle. Sports betting isn’t like that.
It’s one of the rare areas where demand doesn’t drift randomly. It shows up on time every year, tied directly to games people care about.
What’s Happening Right Now
Right now, you’ve just got Major League Baseball and the World Series coming in October. That’s it. Not exactly peak betting season.
But September changes the game — that’s when NCAA football and the NFL kick off. And if you’re in the sports betting business, that’s when the volume shows up.
Other markets work the same way. Look at commodities like oil. Most investors obsess over the wrong names while the sector quietly moves in lockstep with predictable seasonal flows.
The shift in demand doesn’t surprise anyone who pays attention. Betting volume works the same way, just with scoreboards instead of supply charts.
So I pulled up last year’s chart to see if that seasonal activity actually moved the stock. And sure enough, starting in September, PENN rallied from a low of around $18 up to $27. That’s almost a $10 move through the entire fall season.
That’s not some random bounce — that rally covered the whole fall, right through the heart of betting season.
The Setup I’m Watching
It reminded me a bit of what happened with Critical Metals (CRML) last October. That move wasn’t complicated. It was just a market behaving the way it always does when its underlying cycle flips.
When you see that kind of repeatable behavior in any sector, it’s worth paying attention.
That’s why PENN stands out right now. It’s not about hype or unpredictable volatility. It’s about understanding when customers show up and when a business sees its real flow.
You might actually see that again this year.
I’m not chasing it today and I’m not saying it’s a sure thing. But when you line up a business cycle, a predictable calendar and a chart that confirms the pattern, that’s the kind of setup that can turn into a real edge.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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P.S. I’m Revealing the Next Set of Wall Street’s Sleeper Cell Orders
My research led me to a hidden phenomenon that’s been giving Wall Street an edge for 64 years.
Now I’ve traced these sleeper cell orders to certain stocks set to surge this over the next few days
Disclaimer: The trades expressed today are based on signals from the Sleeper Cell Scanner with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight unless otherwise stated. According to a backtest of 64 years of data dating back to 1962, the signals pulled by the scanner would have been 81.9% accurate on over 7,300 trade signals… No strategy is perfect, and wins are not guaranteed. There are bound to be winners and losers along the way. Since the Sleeper Cell Scanner is a tool for traders and not a trading service, profits and performance will vary among users.
