🚨 I’ll be live at 2:30 p.m. ET with Alex Reid🚨
We’ll cover the aggressive April market rebound and Alex Reid’s buy-or-sell verdict, the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate hold, how to navigate elevated market volatility and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
Markets are catching a bid today. Between headlines of a potential ceasefire in Iran and oil prices cooling off, we’re seeing a broad relief rally. But days like this create a different kind of psychological trap, especially when a core winner in your portfolio takes a breather.
I’m still holding Tronox Holdings (TROX). Right now, I’m sitting on a 116% gain, but the stock is down while the S&P 500 (SPX) climbs. When an “everything rally” is happening and your best performer is lagging, the urge to ring the register and chase new movers becomes hard to ignore.
The Tug-of-War Between Fear and Greed
This is where the real battle happens: The rational voice sees a 116% gain and a 3% dip and says lock it in. Don’t let a triple-digit winner turn into a double-digit one. That’s a professional instinct, and it’s rarely wrong.
But managing that tension means remembering the work that’s already been done. I’ve already scaled out of most of my TROX position and reduced it to a runner. Once you’ve taken profits, daily fluctuations — even countertrend moves — don’t carry the same emotional weight.
Letting Winners Run Means Accepting Divergence
We all say “let your winners run,” but we forget they don’t move in straight lines. Real patience gets tested when the market narrative shifts and your stock temporarily loses attention.
TROX has been a standout for months. If I had sold the moment it stopped outperforming or lagged the Nasdaq Composite (NDX) for a few hours, I would have missed most of this move. As long as the primary trend remains intact and risk is reduced, there is value in doing nothing.
I’m not suggesting holding through a full trend reversal. I’m saying once risk is reduced, the smartest move is often to step back and let the trade work.
The market may be reacting to a potential ceasefire today, but for this position, the plan remains the same: Trust the trend, ignore short-term divergence, and let the winner do its job.
👉 Click here to join Profit Panel at 2:30 p.m. ET on weekdays!
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram: https://t.me/+lm8_Nq3Su104NmFh
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinancialWars
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Geof Smith Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. I Just Flagged This Week’s Sleeper Cell Orders
I just flagged a fresh batch of Sleeper Cell orders for this week! These are instruments Wall Street has been using to get in on stocks at ridiculously cheap prices for nearly five decades.
I’ve pinpointed 12 names set to go off this week, and I want to hand them over to you today.
Get This Week’s Watchlist Right Here
Disclaimer: We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but we cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. According to a backtest of 64 years of data, this strategy identified winning trades 81.9% of the time on over 7,300 trades in the dataset.
