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You’ve probably noticed gold keeps grinding higher — and that’s great if you’re holding it…
But here’s what most folks are missing: Silver typically outperforms gold late in these precious metal supercycles. And if history’s any guide, we’re right on schedule for silver to take the lead.
Silver’s already taken off, up 110% year to date, which is exactly what you’d expect at this stage of the cycle.
Since 2018, gold — up 62% year to date by comparison — and silver have been neck and neck. That’s the setup.
That’s when silver usually catches fire and blows past gold — just like it’s done over and over again.
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating
Let me walk you through the history, because it’s not subtle.
Back in the 1970s supercycle, gold climbed 717% in 821 days. Impressive right? But silver soared over 1,000% during that same period.
And during the rate cut cycles of that era, silver didn’t just outperform — it exploded.
After the early ’70s rate cut, silver shot up 334% in just three years. After the mid-70s cut, it climbed an incredible 725%, leaving gold far behind. In the early ’90s, silver more than doubled gold’s performance.
Same story, different decade.
Fast forward to 2008. During the run-up to the financial crisis, silver paid out 100% more return on investment than gold. And after that crisis, silver delivered 357% compared to gold’s 164% — more than twice as much.
After COVID, silver doubled in price in less than six months. Every time, it’s the same pattern.
Why Silver Moves Differently
Here’s the thing people forget: Gold is a precious metal, but silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. That dual nature gives silver a completely different personality.
Manufacturing activity, copper prices and broad industrial demand all feed into silver’s movements in ways gold simply doesn’t experience.
That’s why you’ll sometimes see copper and silver go down when gold’s going up — it feels backward until you remember the industrial metal component. Poor manufacturing numbers can temporarily weigh on silver even in a rising metals market.
But it’s also why silver makes those big, sharp moves. It runs hard, consolidates, then runs again. Momentum builds fast, and when it goes, it really goes.
And there’s another factor setting the stage right now: Major institutions like JPMorgan (JPM) and BlackRock (BLK) expect this rate cut cycle to last at least until 2027.
Historically, long rate cut cycles have been some of silver’s strongest environments because they kick off the kind of sustained economic and monetary shifts that fuel its biggest surges.
So here’s my big prediction: While I wouldn’t be shocked to see gold go up another 20-30% from here, silver could legitimately move another 100%.
History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it sure does rhyme. And right now, the setup for silver looks awfully familiar.
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines or heavy into gold, this might be the time to think about tilting some exposure toward silver before it makes that next leg higher.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Did You Catch My Urgent Fed Briefing?
I broke down how this rate cut cycle has kicked off a massive shift in the stock market…
And showed my #1 play you need to know to take advantage of this opportunity.
Catch The Full Breakdown Right Here
