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I’ve been watching something develop in the market that has my attention — and it’s exactly the kind of technical setup I look for when positioning trades with favorable risk-reward profiles.
The S&P 500 (SPY) has been making lower highs and lower lows since early February, and right now we’re sitting at what I consider an absolute indecision zone. The market is hovering near its 200-day moving average (MA), and we’re getting crossovers between the 50- and 200-day MAs.
Most traders see indecision and get nervous. But this type of technical uncertainty is exactly what creates opportunities for smart positioning, especially when we can take advantage of out-of-the-money (OTM) pricing during periods of hesitation.
Why the 200-Day MA Matters
The 200-day MA is sitting right here as a near-term target, and the question everyone is asking is whether the market will tap the 200-day and go lower or bounce back up.
The honest answer is that nobody knows for certain. That’s exactly why I’m focused on positioning OTM rather than trying to pick the exact direction. When the market is at a technical crossroads like this, the best approach is not to force a directional bet…
It’s to position yourself where the probability and pricing make sense.
Right now, if we go out 10% from current price, we can grab around 50 to 55 cents, and if we scale slightly lower, that shifts into a 60- to 40-cent handle. These pricing structures create attractive risk-reward setups without requiring perfect timing.
How I’m Thinking About This Setup
What I like about this moment is that even though the market is indecisive, we can still structure trades that make sense from a risk-reward perspective. One approach I’m considering is a risk-defined call condor.
If we can collect 50 cents to a dollar and set up a profit trap in the $1,500 to $2,000 range, that creates a well-framed opportunity toward an upper target around 7,300 on SPX.
Whether the market taps the 200-day and drops further or bounces back toward recent levels, the structure of these trades allows us to benefit from movement without having to nail the exact direction. That’s the power of positioning strategically when technical levels create uncertainty.
This is where indecision works in our favor. Even though the overall environment is mixed, we can still position OTM and align ourselves with trades that take advantage of volatility rather than fear it. Indecision does not have to be a threat — it can be a catalyst for well-built setups.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
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