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There are certain trades you can almost set your watch by.
For years, Nike (NKE) had a clean seasonal window from August through late October into November.
Football season kicks off, jersey sales pick up and demand for sports merchandise tends to strengthen. Historically, that stretch often gave NKE a dependable tailwind.
This year, I’m not touching it.
When the Pattern Breaks
When NKE was trading around $64 to $65, I figured it would hold support and probably work its way back toward $80 or $90. That’s where the stock had been and the setup looked reasonable enough.
Then NKE busted right through that level and got hammered. Earnings came out and the stock went straight down.
What really got my attention was what didn’t happen…
I thought the World Cup might provide some kind of lift for NKE, but it didn’t do a thing. Major global sporting events can focus attention on athletes, national teams and branded apparel.
For a company with Nike’s reach, that should at least create the potential for stronger sentiment. Instead, NKE sold off even more.
When an event that should support the business can’t generate a response in the share price, that tells you the market is focused on deeper problems.
Right now, NKE can’t even get back above $47. That’s not a stock setting up for a seasonal rally. That’s a stock in trouble.
Seasonal Trades vs. Reality
Here’s the thing about seasonal patterns: They work until they don’t.
Historically, the idea wasn’t to buy NKE blindly. It was to recognize a recurring window — buy around August, then ride the seasonal strength through late October or into November.
That trade was supported by football season, jersey sales and broader sports merchandise demand. This year, the comparison is stark.
Instead of holding support and building momentum into its historically stronger period, NKE broke down, sank after earnings and failed to benefit from a major global sporting event.
I think NKE continues to get hammered. When the fundamentals are this weak and the technicals are this broken, even a historically reliable pattern isn’t worth the risk.
The seasonal playbook says one thing, but the price action is screaming something else. I’m listening to the price.
Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t make.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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P.S. Fed Chair Warsh set to testify before Congress this week – here’s the play!
With Warsh on the host seat this week, traders are looking for the best possible approach or ticker to spearhead this week’s income opportunity.
I’ve got both in black and white, and I’ll show you if you go right here.
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 20 winners, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.05% and the average hold time has been 24 days.
