Howdy folks,
It’s been a choppy week in the markets, with plenty of data flying around — jobs numbers, non-farm payrolls, and more.
But one report really caught my eye: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
Now, normally, I don’t put too much stock in this report. After all, it’s based on a tiny sample size — just a few hundred people being asked how they “feel” about the economy.
But this time, it dropped a stat that sent the market into a tailspin.
According to the survey, year-end inflation expectations have jumped to 4.3% — a full percentage point higher than before. And as soon as that number hit the wires, the market rolled over.
Why does this matter? Because it goes against the whole “inflation is cooling” narrative the Fed has been pushing.
The S&P 500 has been chewing and chopping around for months, and while it’s technically trending higher, it hasn’t made a decisive move. Traders are looking for confirmation — one way or another — on where things are really headed.
With CPI and PPI coming next week, we’ll get more clues on whether inflation is actually coming down or if it’s about to heat up again. Either way, the market is at a pivotal moment, and I’ll be watching how it reacts.
I covered this and much more — including where gold, silver, and copper are heading and what Powell’s testimony before Congress next week could mean for traders — in my latest Weekly Wrap-Up.
👉 Watch it here to get the full breakdown.
Stay sharp out there,
—Geof Smith
P.S. If the market rolls over (or even if it doesn’t), one thing I count on week after week is targeting consistent income with this strategy right here.
