🚨 Join Alex and Geof live at 2:30p.m. ET🚨
We’ll cover the overlooked AI bargain, Block’s 4,000 job cuts for an AI Terminator and why Netflix walked away a winner [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
There’s a pattern I’ve been trading for years that most folks ignore — and it’s one of the cleanest setups you’ll ever find.
It shows up every time we get a big economic number: CPI, PPI — the Consumer and Producer Price indexes that gauge inflation each month — GDP, nonfarm payrolls — any of those market-moving reports that drop weekday mornings.
At the center of it is what I call the news number. That’s simply the exact price where the market opened when the news hit, and it becomes the reference point everything else reacts to that day.
Say we get a hot jobs report and the market rips higher right away. Everything looks bullish.
But if it comes back down and breaks below that news number after running up, they’re going to tank it.
Same in reverse: If they sell it hard but rally back above that level, it’ll usually keep going.
This works because institutions and algos anchor themselves to that first reaction. They treat it as the market’s honest response before the noise kicks in.
How to Actually Trade It
Look at the news range — the high and low formed right after the data release — and then wait for the opening bell.
The key is patience. Don’t trade inside that range.
Wait for the decisive break. Once it goes, it tends to keep going.
Whichever way they push through that range after the open tells you the likely direction for the session.
This setup plays out beautifully on the Dow (DIA). I’ve seen it behave cleaner there than almost anywhere else, but you can use the same logic on other indexes and even individual plays.
Don’t Overstay Your Welcome
One thing to remember: This setup only has real power for a day or two.
After that, the market stops caring about the report. It’s been priced in and everyone is trading something else.
So mark the level, wait for the break and let the move unfold. No indicators, no clutter, no guessing — just one number and the discipline to let the market show its hand.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram: https://t.me/+lm8_Nq3Su104NmFh
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinancialWars
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Geof Smith Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
One secret predicted the COVID crash, the rise of Nvidia, 2022’s bear market and just signaled the ultimate buy signal on one overlooked stock.
Silas Peters recently went live with Chris Pulver as he revealed all the details — including the ticker for everyone watching!
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. While we have been using the Alpha Arrows with great success, we cannot guarantee any future results. What you will see today are some of the best examples over the last few months. There were bigger winners, there were smaller winners, and there were losers. Since the Alpha Arrows is a tool for traders and not a trading service, profits and performance will vary among users.Â
