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Silver’s been on one heck of a ride.
A year ago, we were looking at silver around $28-$30. Then it ran all the way up above $100 — the kind of parabolic move that gets everyone excited but also sets off alarm bells if you know what to look for.
Since November, silver had basically gone parabolic. It was an exponential curve if you want to look at it that way, and it was due for a correction.
When something runs that hard, that fast, it’s not a question of if it’ll correct — it’s when.
The Fibonacci Test Silver Failed
Silver dumped 21% then rallied back up 22%.
That kind of bounce gets people thinking maybe the correction’s done, but I was watching one specific level that would tell me if this rally had real strength.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Silver got above the 50% level but couldn’t bust above that critical 61.8% area. Meanwhile, gold actually did break above its 61.8% level.
I always like to see silver confirm the move. Silver didn’t confirm the move, and I knew right then it wasn’t going to work out unless silver confirmed the move.
When the two metals move together, that’s conviction.
When one breaks out and the other doesn’t? That’s a warning sign — and this time, silver gave the warning loud and clear.
The Volatility Nobody’s Talking About
Here’s the other thing that’s wild right now: silver has become a whole lot more volatile.
At $70-$80, silver’s been moving $7-$8 in a single day.
Do the math — that’s 10% daily moves. For a metal that’s supposed to be a store of value, that kind of intraday swing is just crazy.
Gold, on the other hand, has been holding above its 50-day moving average very well. Gold went parabolic too but it’s showing a cleaner technical picture.
With silver, the trend line is harder to identify — it’s either really flat at the lower levels or you’re using the higher trend line.
Either way, it’s not giving you the same clean tradeable setup that gold is.
The lesson here? When the metals diverge like this, pay attention.
Silver’s failure to confirm gold’s breakout was the tell. And when something’s moving 10% in a day, you better have a plan and keep your position sizes in check.
That’s just technical trading. The chart tells you what it’s going to do if you’re willing to listen.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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Disclaimer: The profits and performance shown are not typical; we make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. From 11//11/24 through 2/23/25, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 70%. The average weighted rate of return on options trades was 8.53% over a 1-day hold time.
